Imarike enokwenzeka yezikhululo zokutshaja ze-EV | iFlowPower

Imarike enokwenzeka yezikhululo zokutshaja ze-EV

1 Ukuthengiswa kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha kwihlabathi kulindeleke ukuba kufikelele kwi-14 yezigidi zeeyunithi ngo-2023.

1) Ukujonga kwimarike yaseTshayina, kunye nokuthotywa kwexabiso likaTesla ukukhulula imfuno kunye nokusebenza okuqinileyo kwe-BYD, ukuthengiswa kwemoto entsha yaseChina kulindeleke ukuba kudlule iiyunithi ze-8.8 yezigidi kwi-2023, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-30%.

2) EU.S. kwimarike, ngokuphunyezwa kwesicwangciso se-IRA kunye nokususwa kwezithintelo kwiintengiso zemodeli yesithuthi, kulindeleke ukuba ikhuthaze ngakumbi imfuno yokuthengisa. Ngaphezu koko, izinga lokungena kwangoku kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha e-United States lingaphantsi kwe-10%, kwaye kukho indawo enkulu yokuphucula. Siqikelela ukuba umthamo wokuthengisa jikelele e-United States ngo-2023 kulindeleke ukuba ufikelele kwi-1.8 yezigidi zezithuthi, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka ngaphezu kwe-50%.

3) Imakethi yaseYurophu igcina ukukhula okuzinzileyo, kwaye intengiso kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-3 yezigidi zeemoto ngo-2023. Ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha kuya kuvuselela imfuno yokutshaja iimfumba.

2 Uphuhliso olukhulayo lwezithuthi zamandla amatsha luqhube ukukhula okukhawulezayo kwimfuno yeziseko ezingundoqo zokubiza.

1) Okwangoku, uninzi lweendawo zokutshaja iimoto zombane ziindawo zokuhlala kunye neendawo zokusebenza, kodwa izibonelelo zokutshaja ezinokuzalisa umbane ngokukhawuleza endleleni azikagqibi.

2) Umlinganiselo wezithuthi zikawonke-wonke-kwingqumba yehlabathi jikelele uya kuba malunga ne-10:1 ngo-2021, kwaye i-68% yemfumba ekhoyo yokutshaja kawonke-wonke itshaja kancinane. Isantya sonikezelo lwamandla eemfumba zokutshaja kancinci sicotha kakhulu kuneso sokutshaja ngokukhawuleza, kwaye asikwazi ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zokutshaja kwezithuthi zombane.

3) Ukongeza, ukuqhubeka kokungena kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha kuya kuzisa ngakumbi

4) Imfuno eyongeziweyo yeemfumba zokutshaja zabucala, kwaye indawo yentengiso yeemfumba zokutshaja inkulu.

Izikhululo zokutshaja zikawonke-wonke zikhokelela kwimarike yesikhululo sokutshaja iimoto zombane

Ubukho bezikhululo zokutshaja iimoto zombane zikawonke-wonke kubalulekile ekuthengweni kwezithuthi zombane kwihlabathi jikelele. Xa kuthengwa imoto yombane, ukukwazi ukuhlawula ngokukhawuleza kwizikhululo zokutshaja zikawonkewonke kubonakala njengeyona nto ibalulekileyo. Oku kulindeleke ukuba kwandise ukukhula kwengeniso kwicandelo lokubizwa kwentlawulo yoluntu. Ummandla wase-Asia-Pacific uyaqhubeka nokufaka izikhululo zokutshaja zikawonkewonke ngokukhawuleza, ngakumbi e-China, e-Indiya naseMzantsi Korea, njengoko inani labasebenzisi bezithuthi zombane liqhubeka likhula.

Oorhulumente ehlabathini lonke baye basungula iinkqubo ezahlukeneyo kunye namanyathelo okukhuthaza abathengi ukuba bakhethe izithuthi zombane kuneemoto eziqhelekileyo.

Ingaba inkulu kangakanani imakethi yezikhululo zokutshaja iimoto zombane?

Ubungakanani bemakethi yezikhululo zokutshaja iimoto zombane kulindeleke ukuba bufikelele kwi-32.86 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2024, kunye nesantya sokukhula sonyaka esiyi-25.94%, kwaye siya kufikelela kwi-104.09 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2029.

Ithemba leZitishi zokuTjaja ze-EV

1 Imigaqo-nkqubo ixhasa ngamandla ulwakhiwo lweziseko ezingundoqo ezibizwayo.

Ukusasazwa kweziseko ezingundoqo zokutshaja kubalulekile ekuqhubeleni phambili ukufakelwa kombane kwizithuthi. Amazwe omeleza ulwakhiwo lweziseko ezingundoqo zokuhlawulisa ukuhlangabezana neemfuno eziguquguqukayo zabathengi, kunye nokwandisa utyalo-mali kwimimandla efana nokubekwa emgangathweni, ukuphuculwa kwendlela yokutshaja, kunye nokugubungela indawo ebanzi.

2 Ngo-2030, ukutshaja iimfumba kuya kuphuhlisa ukuthandwa kunye nobukrelekrele.

Ukutshaja iimfumba kuya kuzisa ukukhula okuphindwe kashumi kwiminyaka elishumi. Ngokutsho kwe-International Energy Agency, ukuxhasa ukukhula kwezithuthi zombane kunye nokuhlangabezana neenjongo ezithenjisiweyo, iziseko zokutshaja kwihlabathi jikelele ziya kufuna ukwandisa ngaphezu kwamaxesha e-12 ngo-2030, ngaphezu kwe-22 yezigidi ze-22 yezigidi zombane zokutshaja iimfumba ezifuna ukufakwa ngonyaka. . Ngokutsho kwe-IEA, inani leemfumba zokutshaja zoluntu liya kwenza kuphela i-10% yomthamo ofakiweyo opheleleyo ngo-2030, kodwa ngenxa yamandla aphezulu, iipali zokutshaja zoluntu ziya kuphendula kwi-40% yomthamo ofakiweyo. Imfuno yokutshaja yamandla inokugqithisa i-750TWh ngo-2030, kwaye izikhululo zokutshaja zabucala zinokuhlangabezana malunga ne-65% yemfuno yamandla.

I-China kudala iyeyona ntengiso inkulu yokutshaja iimfumba. Okwangoku, kumazwe amaninzi, izikhululo zokutshaja zabucala ekhaya okanye emsebenzini zingowona mthombo uphambili wokutshaja, kunye nomahluko omkhulu wokufikeleleka kwentlawulo yokuhlala phakathi kwamazwe. Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-IEA, i-70% yamakhaya avaliweyo e-United States anokufikelela kwintlawulo yasekhaya, ngelixa izinga lokufikelela kwizindlu ezirentwayo liphantsi njenge-10-20%. I-China inabemi abaxineneyo, kwaye uninzi lwabo zizakhiwo zokuhlala eziphakamileyo. Kuphela malunga ne-40% yemizi ekwazi ukufikelela kwiindawo zokuhlala zokupaka, kwaye nangaphantsi kwayo iyakwazi ukufaka nokusebenzisa iimfumba zokutshaja. Ke ngoko, iChina iya kuthembela ngakumbi kwiimfumba zokutshaja esidlangalaleni. I-IEA iqikelela ukuba ngo-2030, kuya kubakho i-5.5 yezigidi zeemfumba zokutshaja ngokukhawuleza kunye ne-10 lezigidi zeemfumba zokutshaja ngokukhawuleza kwihlabathi jikelele, apho i-China inezigidi ezi-4 kunye ne-5.5 yezigidi ngokulandelelanayo. EYurophu nase-United States, isabelo sombane esibonelelwa ngokutshaja kwangasese kulindeleke ukuba siphendule malunga ne-70% yombane ofunekayo, kwaye e-China malunga nesiqingatha.

Uhlalutyo lwesishwankathelo: Iimfumba zokutshaja ziyinxalenye eyimfuneko yophuhliso olukhawulezayo lwezithuthi zamandla amatsha. Imarike yezithuthi zamandla amatsha yehlabathi iyakhula, intengiso iyonke idlula i-10.5 yezigidi zezithuthi ngo-2022 kwaye intengiso kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-14 yezigidi zezithuthi ngo-2023. Nangona kunjalo, ulwakhiwo lweziseko ezixhasayo zokuhlawulisa lusemva. Ngo-2021, kuya kubakho kuphela malunga ne-1.8 yezigidi zeemfumba zokutshaja emhlabeni, apho isinye kwisithathu kuphela iimfumba zokutshaja ngokukhawuleza. Phakathi kwe-2015 kunye ne-2021, kuphela inani elincinci lamazwe, njenge-China, i-South Korea, ne-Netherlands, inokuhambelana nokukhula kwesitokhwe sezithuthi zombane ekuhanjisweni kweemfumba zokutshaja, kwaye umlinganiselo wesithuthi ukuya kwi-pile. ukwanda kumazwe amaninzi.