Batari lithium firfircoon "muddada hawlgabka" charter shirkad tamarta cusub si ay u qaataan suuqa dib u warshadaynta xeebta

2022/04/08

Qore:Iflowpower -Iibiyaha Saldhigga Korontada ee la qaadan karo

Bishii Maarso 9-keedii, shirkadda soo saarta baytariga gudaha saamiyada geela ayaa ku dhawaaqday in shirkadu ay soo jeedisay in ay ku maalgeliso 5 bilyan yuan si ay u dhisto koox geel ah oo firfircoon ka faa'iidaysiga jaranjarada baytariyada lithium-ion iyo mashruuca dib-u-soo-saarka beeraha. Ka dib oo dhan oo iyaga ka mid ah, waxaa la filayaa in ay sameeyaan habka soo kabashada sanadlaha ah ee 2025. About 300,000 tan oo qashinka dynamic baytariyada lithium-ion, iyo u dhiganta awoodda wax soo saarka electrode wanaagsan, xaqiijinta qiimaha wax soo saarka sanadlaha ah oo ku saabsan 75 bilyan yuan.

Tani maaha kiiskii ugu horeeyay ee ku lug leh dib u warshadaynta baytariyada lithium-ion. Dhab ahaantii, sanadka 2013, tamarta tamarta cusub ee lithium-ion ee ugu horreysa ee la maalgeliyay 2014 waxay geli doontaa "muddada hawlgabka", shuruudaha ilaalinta deegaanka iyo xeerarka siyaasadda. Sababta keentay qodobka, samaynta wicitaanka soo kabashada habka baytariyada lithium-ion ayaa sii kordhaya.

Marka la eego xogta tirakoobka warshadaha baabuurta ee dalkayga, iibka baabuurta tamarta cusub ee dalkaygu wuxuu gaadhay 777,000, oo socday muddo saddex sano ah, iyada oo isku geyn ku dhawaad ​​1.8 milyan oo baabuur, oo ka dhigan in ka badan 50% suuqyada adduunka. Horumarinta degdega ah ee baabuurta tamarta cusub waxay sidoo kale ka dhigaysaa suuqa dib-u-warshadaynta batteriga firfircoon ee lithium-ion batari si degdeg ah, CITIC Securities waxay rajaynaysaa in soo kabashada batteriga lithium-ion sanadka 2020 uu ku dhawaan doono 40GWH, .

Iyada oo ay taasi jirto, weli lama samayn, laakiin waxa la filayaa in ay suuqa u kala jabto 10 bilyan yuan afarta sano ee soo socota ka dib, sida saamiyada geela, baytariyada lithium-ion iyo shirkadaha tamarta ee la xidhiidha. laga bilaabo waxtarka dhaqaalaha iyo kheyraadka yaraanta, arag. Fursadaha ganacsi ee suurtagalka ah ee dib-u-warshadaynta batteriga lithium-ion ee firfircoon. Dhab ahaantii, kor u kaca qiimaha alaabta ceeriin, iyo warshadda baabuurta ee hoose waxay ka gudubtay cadaadiska "dib-u-celinta kabidda", shirkadda batteriga lithium-ion waxay raadineysaa dariiqa jaban ee labada daraf, iyo soo kabashada batteriga lithium-ion. waa la dhisay.

Horumarinta silsiladda warshadaha ee xiran waa isku mar, ama waxay noqon doontaa keeg weyn shirkadahan si ay u helaan faa'iido. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxaa xusid mudan in Zhang Zhiyong, oo ah agaasime ku xigeenka Xarunta Cilmi-baarista Baabuurta ee waddankeyga, Zhang Zhiyong, ayaa yiri "Xitaa mustaqbalka mustaqbalka rajada warshadaha waxaa laga arki karaa marxaladda hadda, soo kabashada batteriga maahan faa'iido la raadinayo. " Suuqa, laakiin aasaas u oggolaanaya dhamaadka hore ee warshadaha.

Fursadaha cusub ee suuqa ayaa ka duwan baabuurta shidaalka ee qadiimiga ah, baabuurta cusub ee tamarta ayaa loo isticmaalaa sidii baytari ka samaysan tuubada, nikkel, manganese, iyo lithium oo ah koronto ahaan. Awoodda guriga ee lithium-ion baytari waa muhiim waa baytari lithium-ion ah. Inkasta oo ay jirto faa'iido nadiif ah oo deegaanka saaxiibtinimo leh.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, batterigaagu wuxuu kaloo leeyahay "dhibaatooyin" nolosha. Waxaa la sheegay in marka awoodda batteriga la dhimo 60% -80% awoodda bilowga ah, waxay bedeli doontaa nolosha adeegga waxtarka leh ee naqshadeynta. Sidaa darteed, nolosha wax ku ool ah ee batteriga rakaabka guud ahaan waa 4-6 sano, iyo gaadiidka ganacsiga korontada waa ka dheer yahay maalintii, xawaaruhu waa ka waxtar badan, iyo batari wuxuu leeyahay oo kaliya 3 sano.

Tani waxay ka dhigan tahay in baabuurta tamarta cusub ee gudaha ee Shiinaha ee 2014 ay diyaar u tahay inay soo dhaweeyaan "muddada hawlgabka" ee batteriga lithium-ion ee 2018. Warbixin cilmi baaris ah oo dhawaan lagu dhawaaqay, marka la eego 2014-2017, shixnadaha lithium korontada gudaha baytariyada ion waxay ahaayeen 5.9GWh, 7.

0GWH, 30.5GWH iyo 39.2GWH, siday u kala horreeyaan, iyo saddexda sano ee soo socota, CAGR ayaa weli la filayaa inay sii haysato 30%.

Kuwa kor ku xusan ayaa la filayaa inay ku dhawaadaan 40GWH sanadka 2020, iyo soo kabashada batari lithium-ion xagjirka ah waxay ku dhowdahay 70GWH sanadka 2022. Marka loo eego qiimaha birta ah ee ku jira, heerka 70GWH wuxuu ka dhigi doonaa awoodda lithium-ion ee soo kabashada suuqa soo kabashada. iyada oo loo marayo cabbirka 100 bilyan yuan. Tani shaki la'aan waa suuq aad u soo jiidasho leh, kaas oo si degdeg ah ugu baahan in la yareeyo kharashyada.

Marka saamiyada geela ee kor ku xusan ay ku dhawaaqeen ogeysiiska, shirkadu waxay si firfircoon uga qayb qaadatay berrinka soo kabashada baytariyada lithium-ion ee 2017. Wax soo saarka dib-u-cusboonaynta batteriga Lithium Ion wuxuu sameyn doonaa dib-u-warshadaynta "laba jeer" dib-u-warshadaynta batteriga baabuurta iyo baytariyada lithium-ion awood leh ganacsiga shirkadu leedahay. Loop-loop "silsiladda warshadaha, shirkadu waxay ku guuleysan doontaa horumarinta cagaaran iyo wareegyada warshadaha tamarta cusub.

Dhab ahaantii, oo ay la socoto suuqa soo kabashada batteriga lithium-ion ayaa la filayaa inuu ballaariyo. Lixdii bilood ee la soo dhaafay, shirkado badan oo hogaamineed ayaa bilaabay in ay ku daraan qaabka code. Bishii Ogosto 2017, ku dhawaaqista tiknoolajiyada sare ee Guoxuan ayaa muujinaysa in Lanzhou Jinxuan, oo ku taal Lanzhou, Shiinaha, uu aasaasay 50 milyan yuan magaalada Anhui, Gansu, ayaa aasaasay laba shirkadood oo tiknoolajiyada dib-u-warshadaynta batariyada ee Jinshan, Gansu, kuwaas oo loo isticmaalo in lagu hawlgeliyo awood.

Dib u soo kabashada, burburinta iyo habaynta baytariyada lithium-ion, iskaashiga ka dhexeeya labadoodu waxay gaadhaan silsilad warshadeed oo dhammaystiran, taas oo markaa soo jeedisa xidhiidhka ka dhexeeya alaabta ceeriin-wareega ah iyo soo kabashada batteriga. Intaa waxaa dheer, sida tiro yar oo shirkado gudaha ah, shirkaddu waxay sidoo kale soo saartay batari lithium-ion awood leh iyo baabuur koronto ah, BYD waxay sidoo kale hirgelisay dhismaha silsiladaha dib-u-warshadaynta ee nidaamka gudaha: iyada oo loo marayo Baolong Factory, oo ay la shaqeeyaan ganacsatada, dhamaystiraan saarista ee baytariyada lithium-ion, tijaabi , Dib u isticmaal; iyada oo loo marayo Warshada agabka Huizhou si ay u dhamaystirto burburinta iyo dib u warshadaynta agabka baytari ee la isticmaalay. Dhawaan, IPO waxay ku jirtaa Ningde Times, qaabaynta goobta dib u warshadaynta mar hore.

Sannadkii 2015, Ningde Times waxa ay dhaaftay saami qaybsiga Ningde iyo Sheng Shares 69.02%, ganacsigii ugu waynaana waxa la geliyey Guangdong Bang Ping kontoroolka qashinka lithium-ion batari, waxana ay ku daraysaa baaxadda xoojinta. Intaa waxaa dheer, Green Mei, Huayou Cobalt, China AV Lithium Electric iyo wax soo saarka baytariyada kale iyo shirkadaha la xidhiidha ayaa sidoo kale si firfircoon u qaabaynta goobaha dib u warshadaynta baytariyada lithium-ion firfircoon.

Waxaa xusid mudan in shirkadda lithium-ion ee awoodda leh ay ku tartanto goobta dib-u-warshadaynta, laga yaabo inaysan rajo ka qabin rajada suuqa dib-u-warshadaynta, laakiin sidoo kale waxaa sabab u ah kor u kaca kharashka alaabta ceeriin ee kor u kaca taasoo horseedaysa cadaadis faa'iido leh. In Performance Express ee lagu dhawaaqay bishii Febraayo 28, Jaamacadda Shiinaha waxay tilmaantay in hoos u dhaca waxqabadka shirkadda uu ahaa sababtoo ah 2017, qiimaha baytariyada lithium-ion ee tamarta gudaha ayaa guud ahaan hoos u dhacay, iyo qiimaha alaabta ceeriin ee kor u kaca. Securities Anxin Bishii Maarso 13, faa'iidada guud ee faa'iidada guud ee Guoxuan ganacsigeeda batteriga firfircoon ee lithium-ion ee firfircoon wuxuu ahaa 37.

91% qeybtii hore ee 2017, ayaa hoos u dhacay 10.8 boqolkiiba dhibcaha marka loo eego 48.71% ee 2016; Xaddiga guud ee faa'iidada adeegga batteriga ee qaybta hore ee 2017 waxay ahayd 24.

76%, hoos u dhac boqolkiiba 1.78 ah marka loo eego 26.54% 2016; Xaddiga guud ee faa'iidada guud ee ganacsiga batteriga awoodda Rilevo ee lithium-ion qeybtii hore ee 2017 wuxuu ahaa 31.

91%, marka la barbar dhigo 2016 39.11% ayaa hoos u dhacay boqolkiiba 7.2 dhibcood.

Suuqa dib-u-warshadaynta ayaa ku jirta halkii uu ka ahaan jiray suuqa dib-u-warshadaynta batteriga awoodda leh, laakiin Zhang Zhyong ayaa u sheegay wariyaha toddobaadlaha ah ee Times in suuqani aanu weli noqon karin suuq, dhammaan nidaamka dib-u-warshadaynta lama samayn, “qaar tamar cusub ah. baabuurtu waxay yeelan doonaan dib u soo iibsi Ballanqaad ah, laakiin hadda guud ahaan, dammaanadda shirkadda tamarta cusub ayaa weli ah mid hooseeya, waxaana sidoo kale jiray tiro badan oo baytari ah." Si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxa uu sidoo kale aqoonsan yahay in dhismaha nidaamka soo kabashada batari lithium-ion firfircoon waa mid aad lama huraan ah, batari lithium-ion batari uu leeyahay wasakh xoog leh, soo kabashada aan habboonayn, iyadoo aan loo eegin haddii ay tahay in bulshada ama deegaanka waa mid aad u waxyeello.

Inkasta oo mustaqbalka fog, inta lagu jiro habka wax soo saarka ee batteriga, alaabta ceeriin dib loo warshadeyn karo, shirkadduna waxay leedahay faa'iidooyin dhaqaale. Marka laga eego dhinaca shirkadda, soo kabashada batteriga ma aha suuq raadinaya suuq faa'iido leh, laakiin ha u ogolaato Foundation dhamaadka hore ee silsiladda warshadaha. Waxa aan la iska indho-tirin ayaa ah in dalkayga cusub ee tamarta baabuurka tamarta dib-u-warshadaynta ay leedahay dhibaatooyin badan: shuruucda dib-u-warshadaynta iyo qawaaniinta maaha mid dhammaystiran, dhinaca kale, dawladdu ma dhamaystirin baabuurka tamarta cusub ee kaydinta tamarta tamarta dib-u-warshadaynta sharci gaar ah; Dhanka kale, awoodda Batarigu ma xaqiijin jaangooyooyinka, qaabka batteriga, dastuurka tiirka, alaabta daboolka dibadda, iwm.

Tignoolajiyada dib-u-warshadaynta bartilmaameedka weli lama fulin. Warshadaha ayaa guud ahaan la rumeysan yahay in dariiqa dib-u-warshadaynta batteriga ee lithium-ion-ka wasakhda ah, baabiinta badbaadada, ilaalinta deegaanka, dammaanad qaadka tayada badeecada iyo tignoolajiyada dib-u-isticmaalka ay wali yihiin dhibaatada caadiga ah ee wajaheysa warshadaha, mana jirto baahi loo qabo in si wada jir ah loo sameeyo nidaam dib u warshadayn oo dhamaystiran , Nidaamka halbeegga ah iyo Xarunta Cilmi-baarista Injineerinka Qaranka ee Awoodda leh si loo hubiyo horumarka caafimaadka leh ee warshadaha soo kabashada baytariyada lithium-ion ee firfircoon. Dhab ahaantii, tan iyo 2012 Golaha Gobolka ku dhawaaqay in "Energy Saving and New Energy Automotive Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)", waaxaha dawladda la xidhiidha ayaa ku dhawaaqay "Xafiiska Guud ee Golaha Gobolka ee dardargelinta baabuurta cusub tamarta", " Baabuurta korantada Siyaasadda Tignoolajiyada Dib-u-warshadaynta Batariga Dhaqdhaqaaqa leh (2015) ".

Febraayo 26, Wasaaradda Wershadaha iyo Tignoolajiyada, Wasaaradda Warshadaha iyo Tignoolajiyada, iwm. kuwaas oo wasakheeya dawladaha ay ka dhigan tahay in shirkadaha wax soo saarka korontada iyo kuwa baabuurta sameeya ay mas'uul ka yihiin dhibaatada dib-u-warshadaynta baytariyada lithium-ion ee firfircoon. Marka la eego arrintan, Zhang Zhiyong wuxuu falanqeeyay in dhismaha kanaalka dib-u-warshadaynta ee batteriga qashinka, ka qaybgalka dhammaan xidhiidhada silsiladda warshadaha waa mid aan macquul ahayn.

Dawladdu waa in ay u badan tahay shirkadda baabuurta, "Shirkadda baabuurtu waxay wajahaysaa macaamiisha, Waa isku xirka muhiimka ah ee isku xirka tamarta cusub ee baabuurta iyo macaamiisha, taas oo sidoo kale ah habka ugu waxtarka badan ee shirkadaha baabuurta. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, inta lagu jiro labada kalfadhi, Chen Hong, oo ah wakiil ka socda Congress-ka Qaranka iyo Kooxda Baabuurta Shanghai, ayaa sheegay in marxaladdan, nidaamka siyaasadda soo kabashada batari lithium-ion ee dalkaygu ma aha mid ku filan, iyo warshadda baabuurtu way adag tahay in la sameeyo bateriga lithium-ion. Baabuurta cusubi waxa ay iibisaa hab-nololeedka oo dhammaystiran ee dib-u-warshadaynta ugu dambeysa.

"Waxaa lagula talinayaa in la barto shahaadada soo kabashada ee baabuurta tamarta cusub, si tartiib tartiib ah u baabi'inta tignoolajiyada, shirkadaha deegaanka ee saaxiibtinimo". Marka la eego dib-u-warshadaynta baytariyada lithium-ion ee firfircoon, hadda waxaa jira dhinacyo muhiim ah oo sahaminta warshadaha gudaha ah, oo ay ku jiraan ka faa'iidaysiga tallaabada, ka faa'iidaysiga dib-u-cusboonaysiinta, iwm. Batariyada qashinka waxaa loo wareejiyaa kala-saarid, soosaar alaabta ceeriin, daawaynta qashinka aan waxyeello lahayn iyo xiriirka kale ee isticmaalka la cusboonaysiin karo.

Waxaa xusid mudan in inkastoo raasamaal badan ay galaan goobta dib-u-warshadaynta, laga bilaabo horumarka warshadaha ee hadda jira, weli waxaa jira muddo gaaban. Zhang Zhiyong ayaa ku sheegay wariyaha toddobaadlaha ah ee Times in "Suuqa la samayn karaa si loo arko dhammaan suuqa baabuurta tamarta cusub, haddii ay gaadho malaayiin wax soo saarka iyo iibka sannadkii, qaan-gaarnimada suuqa dib-u-warshadaynta dhib ma laha, laakiin labada soo socda ama saddex sano ma aha wakhtigan ". .

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