Author ：Iflowpower – Portable Power Station Supplier
Current new energy vehicle power battery mainstream is a lithium battery. The life cycle of power batteries includes production, use, scrap, decomposition, and reuse. The power battery has no change in the chemical composition of the battery in addition to the decrease in chemical activity after its reporting, but its charge and discharge performance cannot meet the power requirements of the vehicle.
The physical chemical properties of the power battery itself have no essential changes. Recycling and utilization in different ways, current power battery recycling includes cascade utilization and resource regeneration utilization. According to the measurement, the power of the dynamic lithium battery is increased from 5.
6GWH in 2018 to 47.3GWH in 2022, with an annual composite growth rate of more than 70%, and the corresponding recovery value is from 580 million yuan in 2018 to 7.86 billion yuan in 2022.
Year composite growth rate exceeds 90%. At present, my country's urgent needs to build a dynamic lithium battery "production-sales-use-re-use" closed-loop industry chain, truly realize the environmental protection of lithium-electric energy. With the continuous development of the new energy automobile industry, the annual new power battery installed volume increased from 0.
66GWH in 2012 to about 57GWH in 2018, the power battery installed capacity exceeds 100GWH. The demand for the positive material of the power battery continues to rise, its core raw material nickel, cobalt, lithium price continues to rise; at the same time, the main amount of power battery will gradually decline from 2018, if it is wrong, if it is wrong, various components in the battery will A major pollution is caused to the environment;. Under the multi-driver of the above industry, environmental pressure and policy encouragement, the importance and urgency of lithium battery recycling is getting more and more prominent.
In the next few years, the industry will usher in high-speed development. The investment opportunity lithium-electric recycling industry is still in the early stages of development, although a batch of start earlier, the single size is not large, the industry concentration is low, the sustainable recycling system is not yet perfect. Looking forward to the future, Jiuding investment believes that only the recycling system is perfect, the customer's quality, strong financial strength, environmentally friendly standards, and pre-layout, the qualifications of the crisis in advance can stand out in the market environment of the industry demand and the increasingly intensified market environment, and finally grow as China.
Leading enterprise in the field of lithium electric recycling. The size of this paper uses the caliber with the caliber of the power lithium battery, and the yield and shipments of the power lithium battery. In general, the output of the power lithium battery is greater than the amount of shipments.
1. Industry Target (1) Basic Concept Current New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Mainstream for Lithium Battery. Lithium battery can be divided into: lithium cobalt acid lithium cell, lithium manganate battery, lithium iron phosphate battery, three-dimensional lithium battery (lithium nickel-cobalt-oxanate), etc.
The ternary material generally refers to the material of the chemical group to become LiniaXBcoCOCO2, where x is Mn (manganese) refers to NCM (lithium nickel-cobalt-nickellate), and X is Al (aluminum) refers to NCA (lithium nickellate acid). Models such as 532, 622 and 811 refer to the ratio of three numbers of A, B, C in NCM materials, such as 622 specifically refer to Li0.6Mn0.
2CO0.2O2. The life cycle of power batteries includes production, use, scrap, decomposition, and reuse.
The power battery has no change in the chemical composition of the battery in addition to the decrease in chemical activity after its reporting, but its charge and discharge performance cannot meet the power requirements of the vehicle. The physical chemical properties of the power battery itself have no essential changes. Recycling and utilization in different ways, current power battery recycling includes cascade utilization and resource regeneration utilization.
(2) Industry chain illustrates the upstream of the lithium-electric recovery industry to produce waste batteries and their materials, including production enterprises and users of their materials, battery materials, battery packs, new energy vehicles operators and end users; middle-reaches is a lithium battery recovery network, recycling and regeneration Utilize enterprises, ladder use enterprises; downstream is a lithium battery material manufacturer and cassette battery users. New batteries have flowed into automotive users, car users, and automotive users replace new batteries through after-sales service outlets and battery rental companies, while collecting waste batteries by after-sales outlets, battery rental enterprises , Transfer to the waste battery regeneration and utilization of enterprises or ladder, the battery flowing to the ladder is ultimately returned to the recycling business after the scrapped by the company. Through regeneration and use of enterprises to generate regeneration materials, continue to flow to battery manufacturer and make new batteries, flow to the whole vehicle, form a "production-sales-use-re-use" complete closed loop.
1) Ladder use is a way of recycling of power lithium battery life. In general, when the power lithium battery capacity of the new energy vehicle is attenuated to about 80%, the battery does not meet the power demand is eliminated, but the battery is still available for industries such as energy storage, which can be put into telecom iron tower base station and other places. , Commercial residential energy storage station and electric vehicle charging storage station, etc.
Compared to lithium iron phosphate, the life of the ternary lithium battery is short, and the safety risk is high, and the ladder utilization area is not suitable for complex environments. At present, the bottleneck that restricts the development of the market has mainly included retired batteries and has high cost, and the performance consistency is difficult to guarantee. The technical barrier of the ladder is high, and the key technologies include discrete integration technology and remaining life prediction techniques.
The key point of the remaining life prediction is that the full life cycle monitoring, that is, the establishment of a large data traceability system platform for system analysis of the retired battery, Can you enter the ladder utilization market big data. In view of the multi-size reasons such as technology, cost, the short-term ladder is used to use large-scale marketization, and the ladder is not used as a key discussion of this article. 2) Resource recovery is to break, disassemble and smelting the power battery that has been scrapped, realizing recycling and utilization of nickel, cobalt, manganese, lithium and other resources.
Through resource recovery, nickel, cobalt, manganese can achieve more than 95%, and lithium elements can achieve reuse of more than 70% (individual vendors can achieve 90%), economic benefits are significant. The output of nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium salt can be used to produce three-membered precursors and positive electrode materials, and is further used for the manufacture of lithium battery cells. (3) Industrial Status 1) The status of the power lithium battery recycling industry is prior to 2014.
The lithium battery is mainly used for consumer electronics such as mobile phones, laptops. Due to the small size, structure and components simple, the distribution is difficult, and its recycling More than traditional nickel hydrogen, nickel-cadmium battery recovery enterprises. After 2014, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles has grown significantly, and the power battery has become the highest product proportional to the consumption in lithium batteries in 2016.
It is expected that it will continue to maintain high-speed improvement trends. The main body of the lithium battery market, the amount of lithium battery associated with consumer electron will shrink to a lower ratio. Due to the difference in technology route and application scenarios, the average life of the power battery is 3-5 years.
At present, it has just stepped into a large-scale retired scrap stage, so my country's powered lithium battery recycling market has just started. The development of lithium-e-electric recycling market in China is still in the early days, immature, not standardized. Traditional battery nickel-hydrogen recovery enterprises and wet metal recycling enterprises take the lead in layout, using the already formed recycling network and many years of technology accumulation, seizing market hotspots, quickly cut into lithium electric recycling field.
However, due to the limited amount of power, the recycling system is not yet perfect, the above enterprises have mainly formed strategic cooperative relations with the downstream three-dimensional positive material manufacturers, power lithium battery manufacturers, with the main material factory and battery factory waste. Source, guarantee recycling of raw materials supply. In addition, it is not negligible.
There is a large number of recycling of small workshops. The process equipment is behind, there is no relevant qualifications, safety hazards and environmental issues are serious, and the recycling channels are connected. This kind of small workshop often hits the banner of recycling, and is a business that "battery is simple to renew, selling it", through high-priced recycling of waste battery raw materials, seriously disturbing the normal order of the power battery market, squeezing the formal Three-party recycler's profitable space.
At present, third-party recyculations and domestic power battery manufacturers have realized the huge market space of future lithium-electric recovery industries. The preliminary statistics of high-workers lithium electricity, currently in the field of power battery recycling fields, more than 30 companies, mainly including Greenmei, Huayou Cobalt, Bangu Group, Zhangzhou Haopeng, Jinyuan New Materials, Xien Technology, Fangyuan Environmental Protection, Dry Thai Technology , Sand Group, China Aviation Lithium Electric, Beijing Saidmi, Tour New Energy, Camel Shares, Xiong Shares, Taili, Dongpeng New Materials, Guanghua Technology, Zhongtianhong Lithium, Siflower Circulation, Yancheng Star Chuang, Jia Neglon energy and other enterprises. Rough statistics, each offered the construction of lithium battery recycling capacity has been much higher than the expected annual scrap; industry insiders expressed new or expansion of more than 60 projects in 2019.
It can be seen that the lithium-electric recovery market is rapidly warming, but it is a madness of the blind layout, and it will also describe the early days of the industry in this field. In the future, the industry standards, competition is eliminated, and the market will gradually go to mature. In addition, the power battery manufacturer as the responsibility system of the policy-clear requirements, and the new energy vehicle vehicle factory as the business entity directly connecting the terminal market, in order to speed up the layout, or directly acquire professional third-party recycling, perfecting their own industries Chain; or sign a strategic cooperation agreement to build a recycling network.
2) Resource recycling technology route due to the power battery market demand, resource recycling and recycling of waste batteries can effectively alleviate metal scarcity such as cobalt, lithium, and reduce power battery production costs. Resource recovery of waste dynamic lithium batteries is mainly concentrated in the positive electrode material extraction, the main process is: (1) thorough discharge; (2) to disassemble, separate the positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and diaphragm, etc. Part; (3) leaching of the positive electrode material, acid immersion, an inductance; (4) extracting an enriched price.
Lithium battery recovery can be divided into three categories according to the extraction process: wet recycling, dry recycling and biological recovery. The wet process is more complicated, but it is the current mainstream recovery process for the value metal recovery rate, and can be used in the mainstream recovery process; the dry method is easy to cause secondary pollution and energy consumption, generally used as metal recycling Initial stage, with wet process is supported; biological law has low cost, small pollution, can be repeatedly used, and long-term, it is the ideal direction of battery recovery, but is still in R & D stages, no commercial application case. (4) In recent years, the national ministries and commissions have been in the policy level, from weak energy, gradually standardize and improve the recycling market of waste lithium batteries, and have been accumulated in multiple lithium battery recycling related policies and regulations.
Through sorting, we found that the current policy focuses in the following: (1) Implement the production of the responsible extension system. The National Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Development and Reform Commission, the "Electric Vehicle Power Battery Recycling Technology Policy" (2016), the "Producer Responsibility Extension System" issued by the Office of the State Council (2017), clearly pointing to the enhancement of car companies In the main body responsibility of the production, use, recycling, reuse of power lithium batteries, and requires car companies to establish new energy car products after-sales service commitment system (including battery recycling), implement new energy vehicle power lithium battery traceability information management, tracking record Dynamic lithium battery recycling. (2) Establish a sound power battery recycling system to encourage demonstration projects.
In early February 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Renewable Resources". It is clearly proposed: 1 focus on the development of new energy vehicles such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Supports the establishment of a strong uniform, economical recycling mode, and carry out demonstration applications; 2 electric vehicles and power battery manufacturers should be responsible for establishing waste battery recycling networks, using after-sales service network to recycle waste batteries, statistics and release recycling information, to ensure The waste battery specification recycling and safety disposal; 3 car companies should implement battery traceability information management, track record power battery recycling. (3) Strengthen industry supervision of industry enterprises.
In September 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "New Energy Automobile Waste Battery Comprehensive Utilization Industry Standard Condition" Enterprise List (First Batch), the power battery recycling enterprise should have clear requirements. 2. Market Analysis (1) Drive Factors 1) Environmental Significance Major Waste Lithium Battery Recycling has great environmental significance.
Once the waste lithium battery material enters the environment, the metal ions such as nickel / cobalt / manganese in the positive electrode material, the strong base and heavy metal ions in the electrolyte can cause heavy metal contamination or organic contamination, and ultimately through the food chain Enter people and animals, seriously affect environmental quality and human health. 2) The power battery demand is in the new energy vehicle related policy, and the entire industrial chain enters the high-speed development period. my country's planning goals have been proposed that in 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 2 million, and more than 5 million vehicles were guaranteed.
In 2018, the new energy vehicle has 12.7 million units in the whole year, with a sales of 12.56 million, compared to 2017 averaged over 60%.
With new energy car production, the production and sales volume is high, and the power lithium battery industry has an explosive growth. At the same time, the advantage of the three-dimensional lithium battery compared to the lithium iron phosphate battery, which satisfies the strict requirements of the country's new energy battery subsidies. Therefore, the three-yuan lithium battery will increase rapidly in the power battery area, 2018 The amount of three-dimensional lithium battery is about 78% of all installed volume, and lithium iron phosphate accounts for 19%.
3) Effectively alleviate the raw material tension with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the demand for three yuan lithium battery continues to increase, the demand for raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, manganese, and lithium is more urgent, directly leading to the sharp rise in the price of related raw materials, 2014 The unit price of electrolytic cobalt and battery-grade carbonate is 2-3 times, and nickel and manganese have risen sharply in the short term. Global nickel and manganese resources are rich, my country's nickel mine base reserves are about 2.9 million, ranking eighth; my country's manganese ore foundation reserves 40 million tons, ranking sixth in the world.
Overall, my country can realize the balance of supply and demand of nickel and manganese. The global cobalt resource reserves are about 7 million tons, the geographical distribution is extremely imbalance, mainly in the Congo (Jin), Australia, Cuba, Philippines, Canada, Russia and other countries, the sum of the reserves of the top three accounts for 70% of the world. my country's cobalt-based base reserves are about 80,000 tons, basically accompanied by accompanying mines, mining difficulty, so my country's cobalt resources are severe, import dependence up to 90%.
my country's lithium resource reserves is about 5.8 million tons, ranking third in the world, but the resource mining is difficult, mainly distributed in Sichuan, Qinghai and Tibet, the ecological environment is fragile and the transportation capacity is limited, and the large-scale mining utilization in a short time is short. Very low possibility, self-owned production can meet the surge in domestic power battery demand.
At present, there are 70% of the demand for lithium. Through lithium-electric recovery, the price of metal in the positive electrode material of retired ternary batteries can be used again for the manufacture of the three-dimensional positive electrode material, and partially satisfies the future of the power battery manufacturing, reducing the dependence of foreign material imports, helping enterprises to control the cost of raw materials The adverse effects of rising, effectively alleviate the problem of cobalt and lithium supply in my country, high strategic significance and economic benefits. (2) Market size estimation 1) Positive electrode materials recovered by the power lithium battery resource market mainly include lithium iron phosphate and three yuan lithium.
According to the standard parameters and chemical molecular formulas of lithium iron phosphate and three-lithium, combined with the market unit price of the recent nickel-cobalt-manganese lithium, the recovery value of each GWH power lithium battery is measured, and the following table: According to this measurement, every GWH The atrophiophosphate positive material Theory is worth about 100 million yuan. Due to the difference in specific components, the theoretical recovery value of NCM333 to NCM811 is between 330 million yuan to 1.9 billion yuan (detailed data see the table).
According to the new energy car over the year and the battery capacity of different models, the power lithium battery installed capacity is predicted: According to the above prediction, the power lithium battery installed capacity increases from 47.4GWH billion in 2018 to 166.6GWH in 2022, year composite growth rate.
More than 30%. Comprehensive industry information, we make the following basic assumptions: (1) According to the 13th Five-Year Plan, the new energy vehicle output needs to reach 2 million; (2) In view of the low energy density of lithium iron phosphate, it is expected that its installed The amount decreases year by year, reducing 5GWH in 2020 and maintains three yuan lithium battery supplements; (3) In the short term, 523 is the absolute main force of the three-yuan lithium battery, the first-line battery manufacturer begins to mass production 622 and 811, It is expected that 622 is a transition product. After 2018, 333 completely disappear; (4) In different application environments, the life of the power lithium battery is generally in 3-5 years, and the life of this measurement is 4 years; (5) Power lithium battery 80% of N-4s plus N-3%.
Based on the above premise, the market size of the power lithium battery resource is made as follows: According to the above measurement, the power of the power lithium battery is increased from 5.6GWH in 2018 to 47.3GWH in 2022, with an annual composite growth rate of more than 70%.
The corresponding recovery value is from 580 million yuan in 2018 to 7.86 billion yuan in 2022, with an annual composite growth rate of more than 90%. 2) 3C digital battery resource market size digital battery is mainly concentrated in smartphones, tablets, laptops, cameras and electric tools, etc.
Therefore, the calculation is mainly based on the shipments of such digital products, and the average battery content of the digital battery. According to the disclosure, the current digital battery mainly uses the lithium cobaltate battery, and thus the calculation is mainly based on the molecular formula, specific capacity, actual ability density of lithium cobalt, calculates the recovery of the 3C digital battery. Through this measurement, the resource recovery scale of digital batteries can grow from 2.
83 billion in 2018 to 3.66 billion yuan in 2022, with a composite growth rate of about 7%. 3.
Main Participants (1) Power Battery Manufacturer Actively Layout Under the promotion of policies and markets, the power battery manufacturer as the main body of the producer responsibility system, has been involved in the field of power lithium battery recovery, its recycling model and the main participants are as follows: (2) Third-party recycler professional expansion requires enterprise self-built network and logistics channels with professional third-party battery recycling enterprises, and concentrates the waste dynamic lithium battery. Its recycling model and the main participants are as follows: 4. Industry development trend and potential enterprise characteristics synthesis information Increased, the proportion of the three-dimensional lithium battery is constantly increasing, and the cost pressure has a significant economic benefit and resource recycling significance to the conventional economic and resource recycling significance.
On the other hand, production Responsibility system requires power battery manufacturers to establish an efficient and environmentally friendly recycling system, so that lithium-electric recovery is necessarily and mandatory. As the first batch of power lithium batteries retired, the amount of retired lithium battery will show rapid growth in the next five years, whether it is a powerful lithium battery manufacturer or third-party recycling, and even other environmental companies will usher in a major development opportunity. In the future of the future lithium-electric recycling industry, all participants who wish to enter the lithium-electric recovery industry will face the following industry barriers: comprehensive factors, we judge, the future can quickly explode and compete in the market environment in the future.
Lithium-electric recycling enterprises with outfitting, should have the following characteristics: 1) Recycling network is perfect. For any resource recycling company, the recycling of raw materials is always the weight, only guarantees enough quantity and reasonable purchase costs to ensure the profitability of resources recycling enterprises. At this stage, professional third-party recyculations is weak in power battery recycling channels, and a large number of raw materials come from battery manufacturers' corner waste and individual recovers, the bargaining capacity is weak, and the future in the recycling system is the first to form actual competitive advantage.
Great growth potential. 2) Good customers. Due to the basic determination of the upstream power lithium battery manufacturers, the power lithium battery manufacturers are both the raw material suppliers of lithium batteries and recycling enterprises, and only a good partnership with the major powered lithium battery manufacturers.
The resources of the battery are high. Performance requirements can guarantee the benign development of lithium battery recycling enterprises. 3) Strong financial strength.
At present, the resource recycling industry is generally adopted by cash transactions in the acquisition of raw materials, and companies face greater cash stress, and sufficient cash is the premise of ensuring the stability of enterprises. 4) Environmental protection. The environmental protection policy is increasingly strict, and the lithium-ec-recovery industry of the main environmentally friendly green is more environmentally friendly.
However, it should be noted that resource recovery generally deals with waste resources with a certain value, my country has some unscrupulous companies in China based on the benefit, using illegal way to deal with waste resources, but in turn, the environment is more harmful, and long-term depends on the policy will not pall. 5) layout in advance. Although the waste battery has not been officially included in the hazardous list, the industry has been discussed, due to a variety of heavy metal ions in the lithium battery, is expected to be incorporated in the future in dangerous people.
Key industry research.
Copyright © 2023 iFlowpower - Guangzhou Quanqiuhui Network Technique Co., Ltd.