Author ：Iflowpower – Portable Power Station Supplier
An outstanding football player, the scenery of the scenery in the "Yingchao" "La Liga" and other European league, will often come to the "Super League" or "Big Alliance" to carry out "ladder", then the power lithium battery as a battery Outstanding representatives, who will pick up "the last stick" after "retirement"? Power lithium battery recycling market, one piece of "mustard cake" is to discuss "last stick", because at the current phase power lithium battery (this power lithium battery refers to a lithium-ion power lithium battery) Recycling or a hard force Errand. Media Recently reported that the battery recovery new market is rising, as if it will fly out of a big "cake", the author believes that it should be rationally, the market is indeed rapidly, but only under the current comprehensive conditions, this cake is still painted. "mustard".
First we estimate the size of the "cake" size, predict the size of the power lithium battery recovery market according to the new energy car sales: Suppose it is decomized according to the four-year battery (capacity attenuation to 80% or less, consider the product technology manufacturing level of the industry), The following table: The number of waste increments in the domestic market is: 0.61, 3.9, 2.
22865 million tons (2017-2020); another algorithm, calculated according to the power lithium battery, 30.7GWH in 2016, average 140Wh / kg's quality is estimated based on energy, according to the 4 years of life, 2020 new reported waste has reached 200,000 tons, which is only the result of the accumulated value of the calendar year. But why did it say that it is "mustard", because the current "difficult to swallow": the first upstream source is difficult.
Currently, the source of battery recycling is the battery pack below the production of B products, including the scrapped battery pack during the research and development process. The second is the battery pack that the vehicle is retired; the state of these two parts is small and the product model is uneven. Status, adding a collection cost to the source of recycling;.
A power lithium battery pack weight is generally greater than 200kg, and the transportation should be used with auxiliary means of forklifts, while the retired battery transportation has to transport qualifications. Storage also should be suitable for the warehouse of the environment, if long-term placement, regular insulation detection, to the battery The status data is monitored, and so on maintenance, so do not recover immediately, the waste battery is really "hot salad". The third downstream recycling is difficult.
Battery recovery orders From profit perspective, the income of recycled materials cannot completely cover the cost of material decomposition processes. The battery dismantling and material recovery process itself should have a large amount of capital investment, and the recycling manufacturers are insufficient. Who will take the "last stick" of the lithium battery recycling 1.
"The last stick" will be a social group or a professional company? Since the current "pick-up" is insufficient, we may wish to borrow more mature lead-acid battery recycling status to speculate on the future of lithium electricity recovery. The following is the status quo of the recycling of lead-acid batteries in my country: 34 copies of the qualified waste battery recovery qualification; There are about 3.5 million tons of waste lead-acid batteries every year; there are three major subjects in the domestic waste lead-acid battery recovery: the recovery of social groups accounts for more than 85% of the total, accounting for about 8%, and the battery distributor The recovery is about 7%.
(The above is "my country Environmental News" reported why the regeneration lead ratio is so low (15%) through the regular channel, the author considers important two aspects, the first recycling technology threshold is low, take out the lead plate, to the acid After heating with a pan, the difference in density can be extracted; the distribution of lead-acid batteries is dispersed, and it is important to concentrate on the automobile 12V power supply, electric bicycle, telecom base station reserve power supply, etc., the monomer can be recovered low. It is widely distributed and is not conducive to large-scale overall recovery.
How is the company's lead-acid recovery of listed companies: "Yu Guangjin Lead 2015 issued stocks no more than 92 million shares, the date price is 20.08 yuan / share, the total amount of funds to be raised does not exceed 1.847 billion yuan, and it is proposed to put the lead lead Battery Recycling Network System Construction Project, three-phase waste lead-acid battery integrated processing project, waste lead-acid battery plastic renewable utilization project, comprehensive utilization of zinc copper slag resources, and used to repay bank loans.
Company stocks on July 3rd. "Nandu power supply or above shows the status quo of the recovery of lead-acid batteries in my country: First, large-scale lead recovery is to make money, but gross profit is very low (typical is less than 10%); professional recycling raw materials (15% professional recovery), most lead Social group recycling. So, the future power lithium electric recovery will also be such a situation, the author believes that there are three: the consequences of unregulated disposal.
Lead-acid pollution is intangible chemical pollution, slow and not easy to detect, and the real chemical pollution of dynamic lithium electricity is lower than lead acid, but the tangible high-pressure system has brought direct safety hazards, and it will be incorrectly disposed of will burn explosion. More obvious security hazards and stronger regulations; the technical threshold for recycling is different. The battery retired from the car is generally in the form of battery pack.
The current battery pack voltage is greater than 300V is normal. The next 500-600V package will appear, and the people who have not passed high-pressure safety training can be said to be There is no way to start, and the safety risk is very large; even if the dismantling of the battery pack, the complex chemical system of the lithium battery is successfully carried out, and the complexity of the recovery process is added; the concentration of recovery is different. Lead-acid battery bicycle is small, centralized disposal is inconvenient; but the number of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicle units with power lithium electricity is concentrated, and the electric logistics train that operates in the operation company is also welcoming with electric logs in operations.
Centralized future. In summary, the treatment of power lithium electricity is more concentrated, and the professional recycling company will play an important role. 2.
Which type of professional company will "the last stick"? Who is willing to take the "last stick" of lithium-electric recycling, we return to the nature, willing to receive interest or forced to be obligated. In combination, the driving force of the recovery includes three parts: ladder use value + recovered material value + government policy driver, the value of the ladder is that the residual value of the battery is greater than the source channel to obtain value; the value of material recycling is lower than recycling The material cost of obtaining; the policy driver is that the forward subsidy revenue is greater than the reverse violation cost, we can separate from one by one: first is the ladder. This is actually a "relaxed" process in the "Recycling" process, and it is not even possible to recover.
Who will do it? Obviously, if there is a profit, the direct investment of the vehicle and the battery factory is more advantageous, because the two cores can be profitable as the ladder, the first is the screening of "good batteries", the second is low cost Reconstruction of the battery pack; "good battery" screening. How to evaluate the battery is good, although the recycling company, as a third party, can be tested by the battery to determine the battery, such as measuring the voltage internal resistance of the scrap battery, and complicated to the monomer, hpl, hpl, Or some temperature durable tests are made to do a deeper judgment, but it is obvious that the historical data of the battery in the "peak" period is can't get it. Some batteries have undergone over-filled, single from open circuit voltage and communication.
Measurement is unable to judge, but these original manufacturers or vehicle manufacturers can be obtained by reading DTC or calibration historical data; on the other hand, the decay curve of the battery is often "origin" has more deep research. Some batteries are in design, for example, after the capacity of 80%, the recycle will be made steep, these are often the design details that the third party wants to do ladder use the company; the reconstruction of the battery pack. This block is obviously the power lithium battery should be considered in the design of the module structure and BMS design.
How to reduce the battery's reconstruction cost, how to design the battery cell into a single life cycle slowly attenuated battery, calendar life The use time is long enough, the battery solution is considered, this is actually weighing, standing in the perspective of the battery lifecycle. Obviously these should also be completed before the battery is shipped, so Xiaoyu believes that this piece is also an advantageous place for the battery factory or the entire vehicle (Pack factory of the whole vehicle), and they will maximize the interests. At present, the shipments of Beiqi, BYD, etc.
, and CATL, Hefei Guoxuan, etc., the battery factory, the layout of the ladder, the second look, the recycling of materials. At present, there are two mainstream technology routes for the recycling of power lithium electrical materials.
One is the so-called "dry method", which is based on physically dismantling and pulverization, recycling battery, other auxiliary valuable materials, such as copper aluminum foil, etc. Negative electrode material, etc. The material is another ladder; another technology route, such as domestic Greenmei, can be called "wet method", by dissolving, to obtain a solution of a noble metal element such as cobalt nickel, and then use liquid phase synthesis and other processes to obtain new Trimer positive material.
The difficulty is difficult, but the recycled element is higher. At present, the previous route is more suitable for recycling of lithium iron phosphate in the stage. The tin lithium is about to enter a large number of scrapped time points, and the recovered iron lithium itself is biased towards the low-end market, more incorporated in cost, so use " The dry method is more appropriate; and the latter route is clearly more suitable for the recovery of the three-yuan materials, suitable for higher purity, valuable metal, and the benefits of the three yuan positive material products are more immediate.
Observing the recycling of Greenmetan 2014 - 2016 gross profit trend, the three-dimensional positive material business This piece is basically on the changing trend, from 15% to 22%, and opposing the business of other three yuan positive material materials in China, subject to The rise in the price of raw material metal, most of the same period is declining, which is the gain brought by the closed loop of the recycling material system to Green. Therefore, this piece should be a material company or a professional third-party material recycling company to deep tillage, you can maximize the benefits, because they own the reserves of the material synthesis process, or the recovery product will be put into production, reduce costs. Greenmeal, the lithium-lying lithium industry has made a key layout in this direction.
Finally, discuss policies. Let's take a look at the US policy-driven mode, importantly, industry associations supply methods and consumer education; while ensuring that the deposit system is used in battery recovery, consumers are required to pay deposits first, and then refund when the battery is recovered, and it also levied Environmental surcharges are also used to subsidize the recycling cost, and the United States has added mandatory and traceability, Germany and the United States can be said to have both sugar and sticks. The Chinese government has also introduced many policies, including clear subsidy policies include: Shanghai, China, issued "Shanghai Encourage Purchase and Using New Energy Automobile Interim Measures", for automobile manufacturers, each recycle new energy vehicle power Lithium battery, give a subsidy of 1,000 yuan.
(None Recycling Subsidic Contents in the revised version of 2016) Shenzhen requires companies that require new energy vehicles, including local production companies and filmed field production companies in Shenzhen's legal personnel, should press 20 yuan / KWH standard special special account for power lithium battery recovery processing fund, given 10 yuan / kWh recycling subsidies for power lithium battery recovery companies. Related to the two intensive subsidy policies issued above, "Notice on Printing and Distributing Producer Responsibility Extension System) and the recent" GBT34014-2017 Automotive Body Battery Code Rules ", traceability and Mandatory rules come more effective. But the stick is not as good as sugar, you have to make the recycler really taste the sweetness is true driving force.
The "last stick" of the power lithium battery is finally analyzed from who is more suitable for the perspective: the ladder is more useful to give the power lithium battery factory or the vehicle factory. They can lay out in a direct investment or joint venture, their advantage is that the battery's source channel and the ladder utilization design of the battery lifecycle, the future with battery performance, the value of the tradder will also be more and more big, there will be More vehicle and battery factories are to invest in this area, thereby spreading the cost of full life; materials recycling should be handed over to battery material production companies and professional third-party companies to pick up. Material company uses itself to understand the material synthesis process, deep digging material recovery treatment technology, reducing material cost of material in the case of high metal prices.
As a third-party recycling company, you can focus on the use of a number of logistics vehicles and commercial vehicles retired by the battery. This part of the battery is lower than that of the passenger cars, and the value of the tradder is also low. This will be a third-party professional recycling.
The company's "cake", using the route of the national multi-location layout, saving logistics costs, increasing the scale of recycling, will be their layout. .
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