Lithium battery: How to drive the future

　　Author ：Iflowpower – Portable Power Station Supplier

In the past few decades, electric vehicles will get a large-scale development. According to IEA forecast, by 2030, the global electric vehicle guarantee will rise from 3.7 million in 2017 to 130 million, and the annual sales volume will reach 2.

1.5 million. In this scenario, the annual new battery capacity will rise from the 68 GW W11 in 2017 to 775 GW, of which 84% will be used in light cars.

my country, EU, India, US Demand accounted for 50%, 18%, 12%, and 7% respectively. Over the past two decades, with the size of the production scale, the lithium-ion technology of the leading electric vehicle battery has greatly improved, the price has fallen sharply, so that the cost performance of electric vehicles begins with the fuel car. Key Drive Factors Since 1990, the lithium-ion battery has been widely used in consumer electronics, energy storage (household, utilities), and electric motor industry.

With the size of the production scale, its performance has greatly improved, the price is substantial decline. Future. Chemical materials.

Battery performance is affected by polarization materials. Cathode materials Important include lithium nickel manganese cobalt (NMC), lithium nickel-cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA), lithium manganese oxide (LMO) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP); most of the anode material uses graphite, heavy-duty automobiles Circulating life, lithium titanate (LTO). The important advantage of NMC and NCA technology is a higher energy density, dominate the light battery market; the energy density of LFP is low, but it has benefited from higher cycle life and safety performance, it is an important importance of heavy electric vehicles (ie passenger cars) Chemical material.

Chemical materials have a large impact on battery costs, using different chemical materials, and their price gap can reach 20%. Battery capacity and size. Electric vehicle battery capacity is very different, the battery capacity of three small electric vehicles in my country is 18.

3 ~ 23 kWh; Europe and North American medium-sized automotive battery capacity is 23 ~ 60 kWh; large cars battery capacity at 75 ~ 100 kWh. The greater the battery capacity, the lower the cost. It is estimated that a 70 kW chine battery unit energy cost is 25% lower than 30 kW.

Machining scale. Zhang Da processing scale to realize the scale economy is another important factor. At present, typical production range is about 0.

5 ~ 8 JW / year, most of the output is about 3 GW / year. According to the typical capacity of 20 ~ 75 kWh, the single electric vehicle is calculated, and the output of a single plant is equivalent to machining 6000-400,000 battery packs per year. At present, Germany, the United States, my country, India and other places are newly built a batch of production larger battery factories, including Super Factory when Tesla year reaches 35 GW.

Charging speed. The current technology can charge 80% in 40 ~ 60 minutes. This appeal has added the complexity of the battery design, such as reducing the thickness of the electrode, which will add battery costs; reduce the battery's energy density, thereby shortening the life of the battery.

A decomposition statement of the US Department of Energy changed the battery design to accommodate 400 kilowatts of charging will increase the cost of battery costs. The main trend of the material revolution will be based on the decomposition of IEA, and the lithium-ion battery will still dominate within twenty years, but its chemical materials will gradually change. Before 2025, a new generation of lithium ion batteries that have low cobalt, high energy density and cathode lithium nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) 811, etc.

will enter mass production. In the graphite anode, a small amount of silicon is added, and the energy density can be increased by 50%, while the electrolyte salt that can withstand higher voltage will also help improve performance. During the period 2025 to 2030, lithium metal is a cathode, graphite / silicon composite material for the anode, the lithium ion battery, may enter the design phase, and can even introduce solid electrolytes to further improve energy density and battery safety.

In addition, lithium ion technology may be replaced by other energy densities and lower theoretical costs with lithium air, lithium sulfur, etc. However, the development level of these technologies is still very low, and the actual performance is still probed. The article published on the Nature Journal of July 26, 2018, a article entitled "TenyearsleftToredesignlithium-Ionbatteries" pointed out that the evolution of lithium-ion battery performance and price is put slow.

It is important that the above problems include: in the crystal structure of the electrode material, the amount of charge that can be stored will be close to the theoretical maximum; the market size is difficult to continue to bring a large price reduction. Worse, the electrode material, such as cobalt and nickel, is very scarce, and if there is no new change, it is expected to be in 2030 ~ 2037 (or earlier), cobalt and nickel demand Exceeding yield. On the other hand, new alternative electrode materials, such as iron, copper, copper, is still in an early research stage.

The article calls for materials scientists, engineers and funding agencies to increase research on electrode materials based on iron, copper and other materials such as reserves. Otherwise, the large-scale development of electric vehicles will be restricted. The important factors affecting the cost of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles include: battery price, body size (influencing fuel economy and electric vehicle battery size), fuel prices and year-on-year mileage.

In terms of battery price, there is a battery that is 7.5 to 80 kWh / year, the battery capacity is 70 ~ 80 kWh, and the cost of the battery capacity is 70-80 kWh, and the cost of 2030 can be reduced to 100 ~ 122 US dollars / kWh, with the EU ($ 93 / kW), my country ($ 116 / kW) and the cost of the cost of Japan ($ 92 / kW) is very close. The gap between the cost of electric vehicles and fuel trains will gradually decrease, but the price of the battery and gasoline exceeds the body size of the body.

For example, the price of battery is equal to $ 400 / kWh, electric cars are very competitive, and fuel vehicles will be more economical. If the price of electric car batteries is low, the gasoline has a high price, when the mileage is high, select a small electric car or plug-in hybrid car than a small fuel car more economical. For example, the battery price is $ 120 / kWh, the price of gasoline is higher than today, then the pure electric car will be a more economical choice regardless of the long-term mileage.

If the battery price is equal to $ 260 / kWh, the mileage is more than 35,000 kilometers / year, the oil price reaches $ 1.5 / liter, is a more economical choice. For large electric buses, if the battery price is less than 260 US dollars / kWh, electric buses on the 4 to 50,000 kilometers / year are cost competitive in areas with high diesel tax systems.