Author ：Iflowpower – Portable Power Station Supplier
In the past 30 years, the cost of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries for mobile phones, laptops and cars has fallen sharply, and has become the main driving force of these technologies. However, the result of the decline in quantization costs is blurred and mutual contradictory, which hinders an attempt to predict the future or design of the technology. Now, the MIT researchers have made detailed analysis of these battery prices, these batteries are the world's dominant rechargeable technologies.
The new study reviewed more than 30 years, including analyzing the original basic data sets and files as much as possible to draw the development track of the technology. Researchers found that since the first commercial use in 1991, the cost of these batteries has dropped 97%. This improvement speed is much faster than many analysts.
Some people think that the solar photovoltaic board is a special case. The new research results today in the "Energy and Environmental Science" magazine reported a paper after MIT after MIT MICHziegler and Associate Profeentity of Jessikatrancik. Trancik said that although it is clear that some cleaning energy technologies (such as solar and wind energy) have fallen sharply, but when they start to study the price of lithium-ion batteries, they see that the cost of these technologies declines, there is very Big difference.
Similar differences have also occurred in other important aspects of trace battery development, such as increasing energy density (energy stored in a given volume) and energy (energy stored within a given quality). "These trends have such an impact on letting us go to the present position, as well as thinking about the future. "Trancik said that he is an associate professor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System and Social Research Institute.
Although everyone knows that the decline in battery cost is a booster that the electric vehicle sales grows, people are not clear how big this decline is. She said: "Through this detailed analysis, we can confirm that lithium-ion battery technology has improved in cost, and its improvement speed and solar technology, especially the photovoltaic assembly, and photovoltaic components are usually made to clean energy innovation. A gold standard.
"About lithium-ion battery costs decline, and what is caused, there is such a big uncertainty and disagreement, which seems to be very strange, but in fact, many information are in the form of data, research, research It is difficult to get. Most lithium-ion batteries don't sell directly to consumers - you can't run to a typical street corner pharmacy to buy replace batteries for your iPhone, your PC or your electric car. Instead, manufacturers buy lithium-ion batteries and use them for electronic products and cars.
Big companies like Apple or Tesla purchase batteries in millions of prices, or produced themselves, the price is negotiated or within, but never disclosed. In addition to helping to promote the ongoing traffic electrification, the further decrease in lithium-ion battery costs may also increase the use of batteries in fixed applications to make up for intermittent supplies such as solar and wind energy. Both applications play an important role in helping to contain the emissions of the world climate change greenhouse gas.
"I can't exaggerate the importance of clean energy innovation for letting us walk to the current position. Here, we have begun to see the rapid electrification of the vehicle, we see the rapid growth of renewable energy technology, of course, There are still a lot of things to do with climate change, but this is indeed a change in the rules of the game. "Trancik said.
Ziegler pointed out that new discovery is not only the history of trace battery development, but helps guide the future. Combing all the published literature on lithium-ion battery costs, he found that the measurement of historical improvements is very different. Moreover, in a variety of papers, researchers use these trends to propose how to further reduce the proposal of lithium ion technology costs, or when can achieve cost objectives.
However, due to the difference in basic data, the recommendations proposed by researchers may be large. Some studies have shown that for some applications, the cost of lithium-ion batteries will not fall rapidly, while other research is optimistic. The difference in this data will eventually actually affect the research key and government incentive measures.
The researchers excavated the original source of the published data, and in some cases some of the original data have been used by multiple research, and these studies are later referenced as separate sources, or the origin source is lost in the way. Most studies only focus on cost, Ziegler said, it is obvious that such single-dimensional analysis may underestimate the improvement speed of lithium ion technology; in addition to cost, weight and volume is a key factor in automotive and portable electronic products. Therefore, the team added a second track in the study, and the improvement of these parameters also analyzed.
Lithium-ion batteries are not adopted because they have cheaper battery technology available. The reason why lithium ion technology is used because it allows you to put portable electronics in your hand because it allows you to make a long-lived power tool, and it allows us to make Sufficient mileage. He added that this more extensive analysis helps define future possible things.
The improvement of lithium ion technology in some applications may be faster than only a performance indicator. By observing multiple metrics, you basically understand the improvement rate, indicating that they may be faster to relax their quality and volume limits. Trancik added that new research can play an important role in energy-related policy development.
A small number of cleaning technologies, such as wind energy, solar, and current lithium-ion batteries that have fallen over time tend to be repeatedly referenced, not only in the academic papers, but also in policy documents and industry reports, Many important climate policy conclusions are based on these trends. For this reason, it is important to treat them correctly. I really need to carefully treat data and comprehensively improve our game level when processing technical data and tracking these trends.
"The pool has determined the price parity of electric vehicles and internal combustion engines. Venkatviswanathan, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie, said that he did not participate in this work. Therefore, predicting that battery costs may be one of the most critical challenges that ensure accurate understanding of electric vehicles.
Viswanathan added, "Discovery costs can be faster than the previous imagination, this will make more extensive use, increase quantity, and lead to further decline in cost. . The data sets planned, analyzed and released in this article will have a long-lasting impact on society.
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