Author ：Iflowpower – Portable Power Station Supplier
The challenge of the power lithium-ion battery industry facing the national policy adjustment and the competition in electric vehicle market is highlighted: the market access threshold is improved, and the two-polarization is serious. No core technology, companies lacking large-scale machining power are facing the risk of being eliminated. What factors are the key to determining the success or failure of the company? With the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the powerful lithium-ion battery market competition is also more violent.
Data showed that from 2014 to 2017, my country's power lithium-ion battery total support was ten times to rise. With the introduction of multiple dynamic lithium-ion battery recovery policies, my country or open incremental market. Recently, Ai Yikai Consulting has decomposed from three technical routes, production construction and value chain, which decides on the key factors of the company's success or failure of the company's success or failure.
The prospect of the continued high-speed rise in electric vehicle sales is unquestionable, and the power lithium-ion battery is an electric vehicle costs. The challenge of the power lithium-ion battery industry facing the national policy adjustment and the competition in electric vehicle market is highlighted: the market access threshold is improved, and the two-polarization is serious. No core technology, companies lacking large-scale machining power are facing the risk of being eliminated.
What factors are the key to determining the success or failure of the company? Global car electricity change is coming, the policies' strong support and technology constant progress is the core driving force of electric vehicle industry development. For example, the US government has more than $ 7,500 for income tax supplied by electric vehicles; my country's government has also developed ambitious goals, and has repeatedly introduced new energy vehicles purchasing subsidy policies, making my country become a global electric vehicle sales. Rising the most rapid country.
Responding to subsidies and the challenge of cost competition, what factors are the key to determining the success or failure of the company? The continued high-speed rise in electric vehicle sales is unquestionable. However, accompanying the adjustment of subsidy policies and the increasingness of the market, market competition will be increasingly violent. The US government has already considered the cancellation of income tax mentioned in the previous article, and the market generally believes that if the move will cause huge blow to the popular motor market; in my country, the removal / cancellation of electric vehicles (new energy vehicles) Also hustle, the discussion of market-driven replacement policy driver is more fierce.
There is a data show that my country's overall subsidies of new energy vehicles have been 40% compared to 2016. At the same time, high-energy density, long-range electric vehicles have become an encouragement object of our government: the pure electric car type of the battery life in 150km will be canceled the financial subsidy; the government will refine the endurance mileage in 150km Type subsidy, the model of battery life, will increase subsidies. The power lithium-ion battery is an electric vehicle cost is aimed.
In the context of national policy adjustment, the challenge of the fast-expanded power lithium-ion battery industry is highlighted: the market access threshold is improved, and the two-polarization is serious. High (high quality) production, with technical driver's advantages and more prominent, at the same time, my country's automotive power lithium-ion battery company is reduced by more than 100 in 2017 in 2017, of which lithium iron phosphate ions The number of processing companies in the battery is particularly distinct. No core technology, companies lacking large-scale machining power are facing the risk of being eliminated.
Respond to subsidies and the challenge of cost competition, what factors are the key to determining the success or failure of the company? Plays the protagonist; it is also in the head of the phosphate ion battery disadvantages in terms of manufacturing cost, etc. Energy density: In my country, a series of policy documents indicated that the energy density of the passenger car codes has been made: reaching 300Wh / kg in 2020; 2030 is required to increase to 500Wh / kg. In the current commercial lithium-ion battery technology, the three-dimensional lithium-ion battery will be the only battery species that may reach 2020 national standards, and its energy density has been widely recognized.
Manufacturing costs: Aiyi Kaiqi is expected to increase the scale of economic effects brought by the increase in production, as well as the processing efficiency of the processing process, the cost of manufacturing cost of the three-yuan battery will continue to decline in the future. Although it is affected by the recent cobalt price, it should not be a problem in two years. Safety and service life: Through technology improvements (such as a more stable battery management system, cooling system), the safety of the three-dimensional ion battery will be improved, and the cycle life of the battery will be greatly improved, and 1200 in 2020 Time / close to 15 years.
From the technical route, the market demand of the three-dimensional lithium-ion battery will rise rapidly, and the shipments will rise rapidly. Looking at the future car power lithium-ion battery market, in addition to the three-dimensional lithium-ion battery, a series of new technologies are also rising, and will affect the long-term emergence. For example, polymer solid state, itself uses solid state electrolyte, energy density and safety.
From the energy density, the battery limit of the liquid lithium-ion battery will be 400-500 WH / kg, while the theoretical energy density of the solid lithium-ion battery can reach 2.5 times the liquid lithium ion battery. At the same time, since there is no existence of the electrolyte, the storage will become easier, or no additional cooling equipment and electronic controls, etc.
, so that security is improved. In addition, the solid-state lithium-ion battery has advantages in terms of service life, so it is highly expected. Toyota has announced significant progress on the road to solid-state lithium-ion battery research at the end of 2017, and plans to sell automobiles from solid-state lithium-ion batteries in 2022; while Hitachi is planned to put solid lithium-ion batteries before 2020 market.
In my country, a number of companies and research institutions have also entered the research competition for solid lithium-ion batteries; including Ningde Times and China AV Lithium Electric and other companies have announced that they are accelerating the development and industrialization of solid-state lithium electricity. We should also see that solid-state lithium-ion batteries still have problems with expensive cost, lack of solid / adultex, and low electrolyte electrical conductivity, etc. Aiyi Kai believes that early commercial solid-state lithium-ion battery products may be put on the market before 2022, but solid-state lithium-ion batteries should be a large-scale industrialization and become the mainstream market, at least to wait until 2025-2030.
2. Production construction: Accelerate the production layout, in the past few years in the future, the global power lithium battery will expand rapidly and reach 180GWH in 2020, my country will be the most rapid expansion of global production; expect to 2020, my country Power lithium battery production will reach between 60-65% of the world; the US production will ranking second. At the same time, the lack of production, making it impossible to have a scale effect, to cope with the challenge of cost competition, is likely to be a more important problem facing small and medium-sized companies.
With the adjustment of the subsidy policy and the double pinch of the pressure of the downstream car factory, the gross profit margin of the power lithium-ion battery will be squeezed. Want to survive, non-single production, maintain production and cost leading advantages. We call the dynamic lithium-ion battery factories of the annual output of more than 20GWH is a giant factory.
Having a giant plant will be the best embodiment of future power lithium-e-commerce competition. The expansion of production of production has declined. Tesla believes that its new super factory will help its battery costs fell more than 30%; while Ningde Times expanded from technology upgrade and production, the decline in battery costs in the past two years has maintained around 15%.
Of course, the dramatic expansion of production will also bring huge financial risks. Therefore, with the strategic cooperation of the downstream vehicle factory is a desiration means to reduce the risk. Panasonic and Tesla joint venture 5 billion US dollars are the most well-known example of power lithium-ion battery companies and vehicle cooperation to meet competition and risks.
In my country, the competition for such cooperative opportunities has also entered the stage of white heat: SAIC and Dongfeng have invested in Ningde Times, BYD announced that Juan Xuan high-class, etc., is considered a forward-looking layout. 3.
Value chain extension: appropriate vertical integration, control key resource or node car power lithium-ion battery companies (and some electric vehicles) have vertically integrated as future foundations. On the one hand, vertical integration can reduce cost, improve efficiency, on the other hand, vertical integration will bring the synergistic effect of upstream and downstream advantages, so that the automotive power lithium-ion battery company stands out in the future industry change process, maintains advantages. The electrode material is affected by the rapid rise in the sales of the vehicle power lithium-ion battery.
The demand for power lithium-ion batteries will also rise rapidly; the demand of the three-dimensional lithium-ion battery will drive lithium, and the demand for non-ferrous metals such as nickel and cobalt rises sharply; The stable supply of cobalt and nickel meets whether the demand in the future is significant: cobalt: With the further promotion of the three-dimensional ion battery and the large-scale application, cobalt demand has greatly improved trend, so that domestic cobalt prices continue Climbing, the rise is fast, and the anticin nickel will increase the demand of nickel sulfate; while the domestic environmental protection pressure will also limit nickel production, and nickel is a scarce of sulfate. : The size of the carbonate is rapidly rising, and the production layout has a certain lag, causing the supply and demand gap in a short period of time, promoting the price of the price of lithium-ion battery and consumers, and enhance the control of raw materials. The impact of cobalt rising, technology companies and car companies have entered the cycle of cobalt resources.
Apple is negotiating from the long-term purchase of metal cobalt from the mining enterprises. It is planned to seek a stable contract for five years or even longer; Tesla and BMW have clearly announced negotiations with mining enterprises to ensure battery materials supply. In China, Ningde Times, BYD, etc.
, in 2017, through various means, the layout and control of upstream battery materials, stabilizing the supply chain of upstream materials. With the further promotion of three yuan lithium ion batteries, the demand for most raw materials will be further pushed; at the same time, new production in a short period of time is limited, so that the market is worried that these raw materials will be further high in the future 3-5 years. However, we expect that as the market enters the reaction period, the increase in production, and even the emergence of alternative materials will make the price of raw materials to stabilize and even fall within 2-3 years.
Decomposing with cobalt: The global electric vehicle sales will rise further, the increase in the demand of cobalt does not change; but at the same time, the existing project yield increases and the new cobalt projects (database display , The world has about 400 active potential cobalt projects in the world), which will gradually keep up. For a longer period, it is also possible to replace cobalt to other electrode materials. There is already a company (such as Johnsonmatthey, the United Kingdom) to reduce the use of a lower cobalt content and reduce the relying on cobalt by increasing a nickel content.
To this end, we expect that in 2019, we have unless the impact of special factors (for example, the situation of the instability of the Congo's Congo), the price of cobalt will stabilize and fall, just the low point before 2017. In the long run, the car power lithium-ion battery company still should increase control, appropriate investment. Battery materials From the cost of battery raw materials, the total ratio of the positive electrode material is mostly 30% of the overall battery, and will further increase in the future, which is the value core of the entire powered lithium-ion battery; at the same time, the electrode material is also The main battery technology company seeks the main attack direction.
In my country, in addition to the diaphragm, several major battery materials have achieved localization: investment in the positive and negative battery materials, the investment in the direction of R & D and technology drive should be the primary direction of future development; the core of the battery of the diaphragm Components, domestic technology breaks have achieved support to form industrialization, and replace imports. For electrolyte, the promotion of domestic electrolyte manufacturers and the expansion of production has enabled the profit space of foreign electrolyte manufacturers to fluctuate, and investment should be cautious in a short time. Investment in battery materials should strengthen the control of value chains, appropriate vertical integration, and control key upstream resources or processing technology.
Vertical integration is the future trend, but it also wants to be accompanied by the risk of funding pressure, policy uncertainty, and market factors such as prices of upstream materials. Throughout the wind, the electric car power lithium-ion battery market, the change is not possible. The opportunities of the market are all, while risks and competition are coexisting.
How to stand out, stand in an invincible place? Aiyi Kai believes that the company and investors should promote both technical routes and production upgrades. Technically, the era of three yuan lithium electricity has arrived, but it is not possible to pay attention to the emergence of new technologies, early layout; in terms of production, it is necessary to reduce the cost of production, consider cooperation between battery companies and the car factory to obtain interest and control risk. At the same time, through the vertical integration of the dynamic lithium-ion battery value chain to maintain the core competitiveness, add a weight in the future competition, and the key.
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