Cost advantage overlapping performance increase the 'minority' phosphate ion battery can counterattack

　　Author ：Iflowpower – Portable Power Station Supplier

One-scale scenery lithium iron phosphate ion battery gradually became the "minority" of the power lithium-ion battery market. Data show that the price of lithium iron phosphate ion battery market in the first three quarters of this year is reduced to less than 40%; while 2016 is more than 70%. Due to the serious output, the price of lithium iron phosphate has dropped by about 30% year-on-year.

The original source of lithium iron phosphate material manufacturers is, it is tight that the increment of the new energy vehicle market has been switched to passenger cars, subsidy policy orientation, and the pursuit of the passenger car itself on high energy density, so that the energy density is not high enough Lithium iron phosphate dynamic lithium ion battery market is atrophy. At the same time, the energy storage category of developing can be difficult to start. In response to the switching of the battery technology route, BYD, Guoxuan's high-class power lithium-ion battery head company for two-hand preparation, improve the lithium iron phosphate performance, and make efforts to develop ternary batteries.

There is still a controversy about whether the price of the three-yuan battery raw material is rising. The focus of disputes is to increase whether the lithium iron energy density will cause safety problems; the second is that after the subsidy policy exits, the lithium iron phosphate will reunite due to price advantages. It is a minority data show that the domestic electric vehicle market is as high as 6.

01GWH in September 2018, which has increased by 88.9% compared with 3.18GWH last year.

In this 6.01GWH installed total, the NCM ternary battery is 3.59GWH, accounting for 59.

8%; the lithium iron phosphate ion battery is 2.35GWH, accounting for 39.2%.

Over the past two years, lithium iron phosphate has been steadily residential lithium-ion battery half-waters. In 2016, it has dominated the electric passenger car market, and the amount of lithium iron phosphate ion battery is more than 70%; although it is affected by passenger car subsidies, the production and sales volume of electric passengers in 2017 decreased, but lithium iron lithium loading machine The amount is still close to half. Since this year, the amount of lithium iron phosphate ion battery installed capacity will continue to fall.

In the first three quarters of this year, the electric vehicle market realized the 29.5GWH of lithium electric equipment, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate and ion battery decreased to 37.8%.

The amount of three-yuan battery installed is steadily up, rising from 20% in 2016 to 44.71% in 2017; it is about 60% in the first three quarters this year. The industry generally believes that the increment of the new energy vehicle market has been switched from the passenger car to the passenger car market, the subsidy policy orientation and the pursuit of high-energy density, resulting in a low energy density, lithium-ion battery Restrivetive, market demand is sluggish.

This makes the lithium iron phosphate material have a serious output, and the price is falling. According to my country Securities News reporters, the mainstream price of lithium iron phosphate materials is about 60,000 to 70,000 yuan / ton, compared to the price of 90,000 yuan / ton of the beginning of this year, about 30%. According to data, the company currently processed the lithium iron phosphate material ranked company includes BYD, Beitry, Hunan Shenghua, Anda Technology, Perta Pioneer, Stelands, German Nano, Chongqing Tri, Guoxuan High, Yantai.

The market share of these 10 companies accounts for about 85%, high market aggregation. According to data, according to data, the first three battery manufacturers in September 2018 rankings are the Ningde Times, BYD, and Guoxuan Haoke, occupying a market share of 87.5%.

"Some battery plants or material plants are lithium iron phosphate and three yuan in parallel, but some companies have been taking a lithium iron route, which is more bleak this year. "Industry insider tells my country's securities reporter. Taking Guoxuan's high school as an example, the company currently shipped the battery still based on the lithium iron phosphate ion battery.

Data show that the installed capacity of Guoxuan high-tech in the first three quarters is 1.41GWH. Among them, the lithium iron phosphate ion battery is 1.

33GWH, accounting for more than 90%. According to the third quarter of the company, the first three quarters, Guoxuan high-tech deduction of non-net profit is 401 million yuan, down 22.32% year-on-year.

In this regard, the Merchants Securities Differentials pointed out that one of the original decline in the first three quarters is that the product shipments have declined year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year year-on-year decline in 4.1%, and the future performance space should also see the progress of the three-yuan battery. New Sanban Company Anda Technology Main business is a positive material for supplying phosphate ion battery.

On October 15th, the company disclosed the three quarterly report performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit of the listing shareholder is 65 million yuan -71 million yuan, down 52.64% -48.

27% from the same period last year. "Since this year, the powerful lithium-ion battery manufacturer has been sagged, whether the lithium iron phosphate ion battery is also the category of the three-yuan battery, the head company accounts for more and more, and the ranking is less and less than the market share. Even the head company has declined the growth rate of profit, many small and medium-sized battery manufacturers face the risk of losses or even bankruptcy.

"Industry insiders told reporters. Industry insiders believe that in the future, the lithium iron phosphate market is desirable to gather in commercial vehicles and storage. But whether these two major markets have retained lysate of oddsite and is still discouraged.

Industry insiders believe that the growth rate of electric passenger cars will gradually slow down. "The total bus market is stable in about 240,000.".

At present, the electric vehicle in commercial vehicles exceeds 100,000 yuan, and the overall proportion exceeds 40%. Traditional bus technology is mature, stable, and electric passenger cars also have a gap between new products, and stability between traditional passenger cars. More than 40% of the accounting is actually high, and it is largely the result of subsidizing policy stimuli.

In the future, the sales growth of electric passengers will gradually slow down. "In the energy storage market, the industry insiders told reporters that the energy storage market has slowed down, and the lithium iron phosphate material will bring new wave use opportunities in the future. However, because the current storage market is small, it is difficult to start in a short period of time.

The frustrated passenger car market is for lithium iron phosphate material factory. The biggest dilemma lies in the slowdown in the sales growth of the bus market, and the storage area is difficult to short. At the same time, it is subject to a short plate that is subject to the energy density of the lithium iron battery itself.

According to data, in the first three quarters of 2018, in the 2005GWH power lithium-ion battery head-loaded machine, the EV passenger car market cumulative installed installed 16.1GWh, accounting for 54.4%, ranking first.

Look at the data in September this year, the electric passenger car realizes the installed 3.31GWH, which is much higher than the sum of last year, up to 165.6% year-on-year.

"I have an electric bus to get an electric bus to get the world, and I have to take electric passenger cars to get the world. "Industry insiders say. In the first three quarters of this year, in the total assembly machine of the electric passenger car, 13.

98GWH adopts a ternary battery, accounting for about 87%; and the lithium iron ion battery is only 12%. "There are also a few passenger cars in lithium iron-based ion batteries. For example, don't pursue high-quality traffic, used in urban commuter passenger cars, or low speed.

"Sky Wind Securities Decomposition Master Yang]. How big is the lithium iron phosphate ion battery and a ternary battery energy density? "At present, the energy density of iron phosphate monomer cells is about 140-150Wh / kg, battery system energy density is about 110-120Wh / kg. The common ternary battery unit cell is 200Wh / kg, the system energy density is about 140WH / kg.

"Industry insiders told reporters. Why is high energy densities become the target of battery factories and car companies? On the one hand, subsidized policy. According to the subsidy of the United June 2018, the battery system energy density subsidy threshold is 105Wh / kg, 105 (including) -120WH / kg models by 0.

6 times subsidy, 120 (including) -140WH / Kg's model is 1 times subsidy, 140 (including) -160WH / kg models according to 1.1 times subsidy, 160Wh / kg and above models are subject to 1.2 times subsidy.

In other words, the passenger car equipped with lithium iron phosphate ion batteries can only get 0.6 times or 1 times subsidy, and the three-yuan battery is generally at least 1 times subsidy. On the other hand, in terms of the passenger car, the system energy density is high.

The energy density of the battery refers to the electrical energy released by the battery uniform unit volume or mass, which will affect the vehicle's battery life. "For example, 200 kg battery pack, if the energy density is 140Wh / kg, 200kg can load 28 degrees. If the energy density is 120Wh / kg, 200kg can be installed 24 degrees.

This is very important for passenger cars, because the internal space interior of the passenger car is limited, and there is only 200 kilograms of weight in the overall structural design, and the 28-degree electric electric is of course more far more than 24 degrees. "Industry insiders told reporters. Head lithium iron phosphate ion battery factory is working hard to make up this short board.

BYD-related persons revealed to my country Securities News reporter that the company's phosphate ion battery system level energy density can be achieved by 140WH / kg. In September this year, Guoxuan September said that the energy density of ferric phosphate monomer is completed by 170WH / kg to 180WH / kg production line upgrade. Close to the performance indicators of the ternary 523, and can meet the new energy vehicles more than 300 kilometers of life.

At the same time, it plans to increase the energy density of lithium iron phosphate monomer cells to near 200WH / kg in 2019. Head companies, especially early technical routes, have more lithium iron phosphate, in carrying out two-hand preparation, and improve the lithium iron phosphate technology route, and save force to develop ternary batteries. The above-mentioned BYD, pointed out that BYD commercial vehicles and E6 are still using lithium iron phosphate ion batteries, and passenger cars have all been replaced this year.

In 2018, BYD adds 24GWH ternary batteries in Qinghai, plus the total output of 16GWh at the end of 2017 (where 6GWH is a ternary battery, 10GWH is a lithium iron phosphate ion battery, which is expected to be a powerful lithium-ion battery at the end of 2019 Total production reaches 40GWH. Guoxuan's high school said that it is fully promoted the development and production of three yuan, has completed the transformation of the original 111 production line to the three yuan 622 production line, and has stabilized and batch to the customer. At the same time, the newly built 4GWH upgrade version of the three yuan production line has completed the opening of a production line, and it is expected to supply for four time.

"The small and medium-sized battery factory for phosphate is to convert the three yuan route is not that easy. One of the relationships of the upstream supplier is in the phosphate system, and it is difficult to re-establish the ternary system; second to compete with existing battery plants in customer resources. "Industry insiders pointed out.

Can you accept whether the lithium iron phosphate can be lost, and the primary problem is to increase whether the lithium iron phosphate energy density causes safety issues. "Although the energy density of lithium iron phosphate monomer cells can be more than 180Wh / kg, most of them are still in small trials or in the mound stage, not listed in large quantities, and further verify the stability and reliability of the product. "Industry insiders pointed out.

Industry insiders emphasize that lithium iron phosphate is extremely chasing energy density or cause safety issues. In general, the more energy in the unit space of the monomer battery, the greater the harmfulness of the moment, the lower the safety. Since the lithium iron phosphate ion battery energy density is generally lower than the ternary battery, the safety is relatively high.

"The method of improving energy density is tightly increasing the energy density of lithium iron phosphate ion batteries by increasing the energy density of the monomer cell. "Industry insiders emphasize that there is danger in this. The higher the battery, the higher the efficiency, which means that the safety component is reduced.

In general, the phosphate ion battery in group ion battery is 80% belongs to normal level, and some manufacturers have been more than 90%. Another controversial focus is that if the subsidy policy exits, will the lithium lithium phosphate cause a counterattack due to price advantages? Investigation of National High-Tech Accepting agencies, as the subsidy, the low cost, long life and high safety of lithium iron phosphate will gradually highlight. On August 26 this year, Wang Chuanfu, Chairman BYD, received questions about my country's Securities Journalists on "How to see the technical route of lithium iron phosphate ion batteries and three-yuan batteries", said that both batteries are very important and will Use different situations.

"For example, commercial vehicles, bus, trucks are more lithium phosphate ion batteries, cars, and passenger cars. More. If the price of three-yuan battery raw materials continues to rise, some low-end passenger cars may re-use the lithium iron phosphate ion battery for vehicles that are very sensitive to price.

Cost increase is not conducive to the development of the three-yuan battery. The market decision formed by the battery route is balanced by cost and technology. "Yang algae believes that even if the subsidy exits, the total trend of the passenger car pursue high energy density is still not changed.

"This is the market decision. On the one hand, consumers have the requirements for endurance; the higher the energy density, the less battery loaded battery. After installing the battery in this whole, the space in the car is greatly reduced, causing the spatial spatial reduction or the rear seat.

"" The price advantages, the cost of the three-yuan battery raw material increase will gradually ease. A large foundation of the prices of the past three yuan raw materials is that the production of some raw materials in some raw materials in the rapid increase in rapid increase in the rapid increase in the rapid rise, and bottlenecks occur in a short time. As yields have gradually increased, the price of raw materials will maintain a stable state.

"Yang]. "The automotive market is large, the customer's level is diversified. In the future, lithium iron phosphate ion batteries still have many scenes in the passenger car market.

For example, vehicles driving short distances. "Industry insiders say. .