Analysis of power lithium battery market: Recycling and investment opportunities

　　Author ：Iflowpower – Portable Power Station Supplier

The continued high-speed rise in electric vehicle sales is unquestionable, and the power lithium battery is an electric vehicle costs. The challenge of the dynamic lithium battery industry facing the national policy adjustment and the rapid expansion of the electric vehicle market is highly prominent: the market access threshold is improved, and the two-polarization is serious. No core technology, companies lacking large-scale processing capabilities are facing the risk of being eliminated.

What factors are the key to determining the success or failure of the company? The electricity change of global car is coming, and the strong support and technology of the policy is the core driving force of the development of electric vehicle industry. For example, the US government has more than $ 7,500 for income tax supplied by electric vehicles; my country's government has also developed ambitious goals, and has repeatedly introduced new energy vehicles purchasing subsidy policies, making my country become a global electric vehicle sales. Rising the most rapid country.

Respond to subsidies and the challenges of cost competition, what factors are the key to determining the success or failure of the company? The prospect of the continued high-speed rise of electric vehicles is unquestionable. However, accompanying the adjustment of subsidy policies and the increasingness of the market, market competition will be increasingly violent. The US government has already considered the cancellation of income tax to cancel, and the market generally believes that this will cause huge blow to the popular motor market; in my country, the removal / cancellation of electric vehicles (new energy vehicles) Also hustle, the discussion of market-driven replacement policy driver is more fierce.

There is a data show that my country's overall subsidies of new energy vehicles have been 40% compared to 2016. At the same time, high-energy density, long-range electric vehicles have become an encouragement object of our government: the pure electric car type of the battery life in 150km will be canceled the financial subsidy; the government will refine the endurance mileage in 150km Type subsidy, the model of battery life, will increase subsidies. Power lithium battery is an electric vehicle cost is aimed.

In the context of national policy adjustment, the challenge of the fast-expanded power lithium battery industry is highlighted: the market access threshold is improved, and the two-polarization is serious. High (high quality) production, with technical driver's strengths and more prominent, at the same time, my country's automotive power lithium battery company is reduced by about 150 in 2016, of which lithium iron phosphate ion batteries The number of processing companies decline is particularly distinct. No core technology, companies lacking large-scale processing capabilities are facing the risk of being eliminated.

Respond to subsidies and the challenges of cost competition, what factors are the key to determining the success or failure of the company? 1. Technology route: Tracking technology, the three-dimensional lithium-ion battery will play a protagonist in future changes due to its advantages in energy density; it is also in front of the phosphate ion battery disadvantages in terms of manufacturing cost. Energy density: In my country, a series of policy documents indicated that the energy density of the passenger car codes has been made: reaching 300Wh / kg in 2020; 2030 is required to increase to 500Wh / kg.

In the currently commercialized power lithium battery technology, the three-dimensional ion battery will be the only battery species that may reach 2020 national standards, and its energy density has been widely recognized. Manufacturing costs: Aiyi Kaiqi is expected to increase the scale of economic effects brought by the increase in production, as well as the processing efficiency of the processing process, the cost of manufacturing cost of the three-yuan battery will continue to decline in the future. Although it is affected by the recent cobalt price, it should not be a problem in two years.

Safety and service life: Through technology improvements (such as a more stable battery management system, cooling system), the safety of the three-dimensional ion battery will be improved, and the cycle life of the battery will be greatly improved, and 1200 in 2020 Time / close to 15 years. From the technical route, the market demand of the three-dimensional lithium-ion battery will rise rapidly, and the shipments will rise rapidly. Looking at the future car power lithium battery market, in addition to the three-dimensional lithium-ion battery, a series of new technologies are also rising, and will affect the long-term.

For example, polymer solid state, itself uses solid state electrolyte, energy density and safety. From the energy density, the battery limit of the liquid lithium-ion battery will be 400-500 WH / kg, while the theoretical energy density of the solid lithium-ion battery can reach 2.5 times the liquid lithium ion battery.

At the same time, since there is no existence of the electrolyte, the storage will become easier, or no additional cooling equipment and electronic controls, etc., so that security is improved. In addition, the solid-state lithium-ion battery has advantages in terms of service life, so it is highly expected.

Toyota has announced significant progress on the road to solid-state lithium-ion battery research at the end of 2017, and plans to sell automobiles from solid-state lithium-ion batteries in 2022; while Hitachi is planned to put solid lithium-ion batteries before 2020 market. In my country, a number of companies and research institutions have also entered the research competition for solid lithium-ion batteries; including Ningde Times and China AV Lithium Electric and other companies have announced that they are accelerating the development and industrialization of solid-state lithium electricity. We should also see that solid-state lithium-ion batteries still have problems with expensive cost, lack of solid / adultex, and low electrolyte electrical conductivity, etc.

Aiyi Kai believes that early commercial solid-state lithium-ion battery products may be put on the market before 2022, but solid-state lithium-ion batteries should be a large-scale industrialization and become the mainstream market, at least to wait until 2025-2030. 2. Production construction: Accelerate the production layout, in the past few years in the future, the global power lithium battery will expand rapidly and reach 180GWH in 2020, my country will be the most rapid expansion of global production; it is expected to be in 2020, my country's power lithium battery Yield will reach between 60-65% of the world; the production of the United States will ranked second.

At the same time, the lack of production, making it impossible to sprout the scale effect, to address the challenge of cost competition, is likely to be more important puzzles facing small and medium-sized companies. With the adjustment of the subsidy policy and the double pinning of the pressure of the downstream car factory, the gross profit margin of the power lithium battery company will be squeezed. Want to survive, non-single production, maintain production and cost leading advantages.

We call the dynamic lithium battery factories of more than 20GWH annual outputs called "Giant Factory". Have "Giant Factory" will be the best embodiment of future power lithium-e-commerce competition. The expansion of production of production has declined.

Tesla believes that its new super factory will help its battery costs fell more than 30%; while Ningde Times expanded from technology upgrade and production, the decline in battery costs in the past two years has maintained around 15%. Of course, the dramatic expansion of production will also bring huge financial risks. Therefore, with the strategic cooperation of the downstream vehicle factory is a desiration means to reduce the risk.

Factory with Tesla joint venture 5 billion US dollars is the most well-known example of power lithium battery companies and vehicle cooperation to meet competition and risks. In my country, the competition for such cooperative opportunities has also entered the stage of white heat: SAIC and Dongfeng have invested in Ningde Times, BYD announced that Juan Xuan high-class, etc., is considered a forward-looking layout.

3. Value chain extension: appropriate vertical integration, control key resource or node automotive lithium battery company (and some electric car companies) have placed vertically as future foundations. On the one hand, vertical integration can reduce costs, improve efficiency, on the other hand, vertical integration will bring the synergistic effect of upstream and downstream advantages, so that the automotive power lithium battery company stands out in the future industry change process, maintaining advantages.

The electrode material is affected by the rapid rise in the sales of the vehicle power lithium battery, the demand for the main material of the power lithium battery will also rise rapidly; the demand of the three-dimensional lithium-ion battery will drive lithium, and the demand for non-ferrous metals such as nickel and cobalt rises sharply; where cobalt The stable supply of nickel meets whether the demand in the future is significant: cobalt: With the further promotion of the three yuan lithium-ion battery and the large-scale application, cobalt demand has greatly improved trend, so that domestic cobalt prices continue to rise, The rise in the rise, ultimately many people's expectations of nickel: "High Nickest" trend will push the demand of nickel sulfate; and domestic environmental pressure will also limit the production of nickel production, and nickel is a lithium : The size of the carbonate is rapidly rising, and the production layout has a certain lag, causing the supply and demand gap in a short period of time, promoting the price of the price of lithium-ion battery and consumers, and enhance the control of raw materials. The impact of cobalt rising, technology companies and car companies have entered the cycle of cobalt resources. Apple is negotiating from the long-term purchase of metal cobalt from the mining enterprises.

It is planned to seek a stable contract for five years or even longer; Tesla and BMW have clearly announced negotiations with mining enterprises to ensure battery materials supply. In China, Ningde Times, BYD, etc., in 2017, through various means, the layout and control of upstream battery materials, stabilizing the supply chain of upstream materials.

With the further promotion of three yuan lithium ion batteries, the demand for most raw materials will be further pushed; at the same time, new production in a short period of time is limited, so that the market is worried that these raw materials will be further high in the future 3-5 years. However, we expect that as the market enters the reaction period, the increase in production, and even the emergence of alternative materials will make the price of raw materials to stabilize and even fall within 2-3 years. Decomposing with cobalt: The global electric vehicle sales will rise further, the increase in the demand of cobalt does not change; but at the same time, the existing project yield increases and the new cobalt projects (database display , The world has about 400 active potential cobalt projects in the world), which will gradually keep up.

For a longer period, it is also possible to replace cobalt to other electrode materials. There is already a company (such as Johnsonmatthey, the United Kingdom) to reduce the use of a lower cobalt content and reduce the relying on cobalt by increasing a nickel content. To this end, we expect that the price of cobalt will be stable and falling, only the price of cobalt is stable and fell, only the low before 2017 (for example, the instability of the Congo's Congo).

In the long run, the automotive power lithium battery company should still enhance the control and appropriate investment of upstream resources. Battery materials From the cost of battery raw materials, the proportion of the positive electrode material is mostly 30% of the overall battery, and will further increase in the future, which is the value of the value of the entire powered lithium battery; at the same time, electrode materials are also Big Battery Technology Company seeks to break through the main attack. In my country, in addition to the diaphragm, several major battery materials have achieved localization: about the positive and negative battery materials, investment in the direction of R & D and technology driving should be the primary direction of future development; the core of the battery for the separator Components, domestic technology breaks have achieved support to form industrialization, and replace imports.

Regarding the electrolyte, the promotion of domestic electrolyte manufacturers and the expansion of production have enabled the profit space of foreign electrolyte manufacturers to fluctuate, and investment should be cautious in a short time. Regarding the investment of battery materials, it should strengthen the control of value chains, appropriate vertical integration, and control key upstream resources or processing technology. Vertical integration is the future trend, but it also wants to be accompanied by the risk of funding pressure, policy uncertainty, and market factors such as prices of upstream materials.

Throughout the wind, the electric car power lithium battery market, the change is not possible. The opportunities of the market are all, while risks and competition are coexisting. How can I stand out, stand in an invincible place? Ai Yikai believes that the company and investors should be promoted in both technical routes and production.

Technically, the era of three yuan lithium electricity has arrived, but it is not possible to pay attention to the emergence of new technologies, early layout; in terms of production, it is necessary to reduce the cost of production, consider cooperation between battery companies and the car factory to obtain interest and control risk. At the same time, through the vertical integration of the power lithium battery value chain to maintain the core competitiveness, add weight in the future competition, and the key to winning. .