International lithium resources "felt war" continues to high-priced lithium damage downstream battery factory

著者：Iflowpower – Olupese Ibusọ Agbara to ṣee gbe

After 20 years ago, Chilean Mining Chemicals (NYSE: SQM), the international lithium product entered the era of oligarchy. After the outbreak of lithium ion batteries, the international oligarchs continue to surround the tight battles of the battery-grade carbonate. Almost at the same time in lithium carbonate, the cooperation between Tianqi Lithium (002466, shares) and Tellson's another shareholder, the cooperation between "honeymoon", both sides begin to plan production construction.

Under the landscape of international lithium resources "three brine". On January 8, the first notice of Tianqi lithium New Year made the industry expected for a long time, but waiting for the pricing price of Tyleson every half year. Many industry people are similar to the prediction of lithium carbonate prices.

In the first half of 2016, it will rise, such as upstream production release prices in the second half of the year. However, the production of battery-grade carbonate is not easy. The domestic and foreign manufacturers have previously planned most of the production of production in 2015, and it has not been realized.

Can 2016 be successfully put into production and have a suspense in the market recognition. "The lithium price continues to rise, many battery manufacturers may not be able to support (2016). "Zhi lithium research chief analyst Melco's continuous hot hot battery carbonate 2016.

Under the driving effect of battery-grade carbonate, not only the lithium chemical product is high, most battery materials have risen with wind, but the high-priced lithium era has just begun, and there is already a company to feel the real "injury". International oligarchy "I loved me yesterday, let you get high tomorrow. "The industry has ridiculed the price of the battery-grade carbonate price.

". As early as 2015, the expectations of lithium carbonate will be very strong, one of the important reasons is the limited production of several international oligarchies. The international lithium mine giant FMC has been raised in global prices since October 1, 2015.

The price of lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, lithium hydroxide, etc., this is a price increase in domestic carbonate. Do not work? ".

In fact, the three lithium-life giants monopolize more than 60% of lithium carbonate in the world for a long time. At present, the global carbonate resources supply is important in SQM, Ya Bao (Albemarle), FMC, Tellson and other giants. The data shows that between 1998 and 2009, the average annual price of lithium carbonate rose to the original three times, this aspect is due to the rise in the demand for lithium products in the world, and on the other hand, the lithium carbonate giant leads to the market.

Whether it is Salt Lake Lithium or lithium mine mining, the pace of domestic development has always been expected, so that the demand for lithium carbonate invested in recent years is still subject to imported lithium mine. Since 2013, Tianqi Qi Qiang Yugue is acquired by 51% of the stake, domestic companies are only indirectly entering the "giant club" in the lithium resource. One important reason for this round of lithium carbonate is seemingly ignored, that is, many domestic and foreign originally expected lithium carbonate projects that are expected to be put into operation in 2015.

In the insiders, on the one hand, there is a technical and irresistible factors, and on the other hand, it is also because oligarch tends to slow release production, maintaining the stability and moderate rise of product prices. Even if the Tianqi lithium industry and the US Yabao controlled Tells, its mining production has not been completely released. As the two shareholders of the world's largest lithium ore, Tianqi Lithium Industry and Ya Bao have been "divided towards" in the lithium concentrate at the end of 2015.

After spending the "honeymoon period" with the international giants, Tianqi lithically controlled Tellson's control seems to be more subtle. Up to now, the "production pricing pricing" of the Tellson "production price" that was originally determined once every six months still has not "released". High-priced lithium era? In the face of lithium carbonate, the price of lithium, Tianqi Lithium, seems to be quite cold.

And behind this is hidden with the international giants, Ya Bao has begun to purchase raw materials to Tailsen in 2015, and producing production production in my country, expanding its market rights in my country. "It is speculated that the potential of lithium production in 2016 is low. "The analysis of the Galaxy Securities" believes that the difference between supply and demand gap and supply and demand determines the sustainability of lithium carbonate, while Tellson's yield utilization is an important uncertainty factor on the supply side.

After a few months of skyrocket, is there a lithium carbonate price? In many analysts, the gains of lithium carbonate will last until the middle of 2016, and the price in the second half of the year depends on the release of new production. "However, the expansion is so fast that everyone is imagined.".

Zhang Jiangfeng, Secretary-General Zhang Jiangfeng, Secretary-General of my country's Non-Colored Metal Industry Association, said that the battery-grade carbonate is mostly ore lithium, and a lithium product should be stabilized and received by the market, this is a long process, production is not uploaded It is expected that there is a lot of cases. In fact, as early as a few years ago, there were estimated that in 2013, from 2015 will be the peak period of overseas carbon-based production, but in the current perspective, the production of the plan has not been expected. The high-priced lithium era seems to come, obviously, before the first half of 2016, the price of lithium carbonate will still have a large price increase.

Analysis also believes that from a medium and long term, the substantial surface of the lithium-e-commerce industry continues to be more confirmed in the next few years. At the same time, due to the decrease in battery costs in battery costs, the lower reaches have a capacity, and the lithium carbonate also has a large rising space. Lithium prices have skyrockery in high-priced lithium era, lithium carbonate and even the entire lithium chemical industry will face a "life and death test".

"There may be a large-scale shutdown in the future. "Mo Ca has no worries, the price of lithium carbonate is bound to conduct downstream. Although the cost of lithium carbonate is only about 10%, but in the face of the fierce competition of Japan and South Korea, my country's battery and its supporting manufacturers have been pressed, and many companies are already hard-supporting trends.

Domestic battery manufacturers are fighting, and our company's costs have basically no advantage compared with Japan and South Korea, and raw materials are very sensitive to the company. Melco analysis said that Japan and South Korea's planned raw material supply is generally a long-term agreement, and the price is still low in China. "If we continue to rise, our battery costs may be higher than Japanese and South Korea, but Japanese and Korean quality is better than us, this will be a big blow.

"At the same time, the price of lithium carbonate has also triggered the price increase of other battery materials. The rapid rise of lithium carbonate is conducted on the price of lithium ingredients of hexafluorophosphate in electrolyte. Since October 2015, there have been listing companies, including listed companies (002709, shares), Shi Dashenghua (603026, shares), major manufacturers, including Jiufluluorchic acid, have announced significantly.

Although the price of the electrolyte also has slightly rising, it is difficult to cover the significant rise in lithium hexafluorophosphate, and the gross profit margin of the company has declined. "Not only is the new energy bus factory, all other industries with lithium products are complaining. "Zhang Jiangfeng revealed that the price increase of lithium battery-grade carbonate caused lithium hydroxide, metal lithium and other lithium chemical products, other raw materials in the battery industry also rose.

"This series of conduction, for the company's smaller company, may not bear. "In Mo Ce, lithium carbonate is now" in the future money ". As a representative of the industry association, Zhang Jiangfeng also understands that with other commodities, lithium is also likely to fall into the quagmire of "price increase, abandonment, excess".

Zhang Jiangfeng said, "" The price is too high is not a good thing, but we can't have much intervention, but the company should consider this risk. ".