Ibhethri le-lithium elinamandla "isikhathi sokuthatha umhlalaphansi" liqasha inkampani yamandla entsha ukuthi ithathe imakethe yokugaywa kabusha kolwandle

Автор: Iflowpower – Портативті электр станциясының жеткізушісі

NgoMashi 9, amasheya abakhiqizi bamakamela basekhaya amemezele ukuthi inkampani ihlongoze ukutshala ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezi-5 ukuze kwakhiwe iphrojekthi yepaki yebhethri ye-lithium-ion enamandla yeqembu le-lithium-ion kanye nephrojekthi yokukhiqiza kabusha. Ngemuva kwakho konke, kulindeleke ukuthi yakhe inqubo yokululama yaminyaka yonke ngo-2025. Cishe amathani angu-300,000 amabhethri e-lithium-ion ashukumisayo, namandla ahambisanayo okukhiqiza izinto ezibonakalayo ze-electrode, ukugcwaliseka komthamo wonyaka wokukhipha inani lama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-75.

Lesi akusona icala lokuqala elihilelekile ekugayweni kabusha kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion. Eqinisweni, ngo-2013, ibhethri elisha lokuqala lamandla e-lithium-ion elitshalwe ku-2014 lizongena "esikhathini sokuthatha umhlalaphansi", ezidingweni zokuvikelwa kwemvelo kanye nezinkambiso zenqubomgomo. Ngaphansi kwembangela yesici, ukwakha ikholi yamandla okubuyisela indlela yebhethri ye-lithium-ion kuya phezulu.

Kusukela emininingwaneni yezibalo zemboni yezimoto yezwe lami, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla ezweni lami kwafinyelela ku-777,000, okwathatha iminyaka emithathu, nesamba sezimoto ezibalelwa ezigidini eziyi-1.8, ezibalwa ngaphezu kuka-50% wemakethe yomhlaba. Ukuthuthukiswa okusheshayo kwezimoto zamandla amasha nakho kwenza imakethe yebhethri ye-lithium-ion eguquguqukayo ikhule ngokushesha, i-CITIC Securities ilindele ukuthi ukubuyiswa kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion ngo-2020 kuzosondela ku-40GWH, ukuvuselelwa kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion ka-2022 kuzosondela ku-70GWH.

Uma sibhekene nalokhu, akukakakhiwa, kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi kugqekeze emakethe esikalini se-yuan eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-10 ngemva kweminyaka emine ezayo, njengezabelo zamakamela, amabhethri e-lithium-ion anamandla kanye nezinkampani zamandla ahlobene, kusukela ekusebenzeni kahle komnotho kanye nokushoda kwezinsiza, bheka. Amathuba ebhizinisi angaba khona ekugayweni kabusha kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion enamandla. Eqinisweni, ekukhuphukeni kwentengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphukayo, kanye nefekthri yezimoto ezansi nomfula yadlula ingcindezi "yokuqalisa kabusha okuxhasiwe", inkampani yebhethri ye-lithium-ion yamandla ifuna indlela yokuphuma kuzo zombili iziphetho, kanye nokubuyiselwa kwamandla ebhethri le-lithium-ion kwakhiwa.

Ukuthuthukiswa kochungechunge lwezimboni ezivaliwe kwenzeka kanyekanye, noma kuzoba ikhekhe elikhulu ukuze lezi zinkampani zithole inzuzo. Kodwa-ke, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi uZhang Zhiyong, isekela lomqondisi we-Automobile Brand Research Centre yezwe lami, uthe uZhang Zhiyong, wathi "Ngisho nasembonini yesikhathi esizayo amathemba angabonakala kusukela esigabeni samanje, ukubuyiswa kwebhethri akuyona inzuzo efunwayo." Imakethe, kodwa isisekelo esivumela ukuphela komkhakha.

Amathuba amasha emakethe ahlukile ezimotweni zikaphethiloli zendabuko, futhi izimoto zamandla amasha zisetshenziswa njengebhethri elakhiwe ngompompi, i-nickel, i-manganese, ne-lithium njengomthombo wamandla. Ibhethri lasekhaya le-lithium-ion libalulekile ibhethri ye-lithium-ion. Nakuba kukhona inzuzo ehlanzekile ehambisana nemvelo.

Kodwa-ke, ibhethri layo liphinde libe "nezinkinga" ngempilo yempilo. Kubikwa ukuthi lapho umthamo webhethri uncishiswa ku-60% -80% womthamo wokuqala, uzothatha indawo yempilo yesevisi ephumelelayo yomklamo. Ngakho-ke, impilo ephumelelayo yebhethri yemoto yomgibeli ngokuvamile iminyaka engu-4-6, futhi imoto yezohwebo kagesi yinde kakhulu kunosuku, isivinini sisebenza kangcono, futhi ibhethri lineminyaka engaba ngu-3 kuphela.

Lokhu kusho ukuthi izimoto zasekhaya zamandla amasha e-China ngo-2014 zizovuma ukwamukela "isikhathi sokuthatha umhlalaphansi" sebhethri yamandla e-lithium-ion ngo-2018. Umbiko wocwaningo osanda kumenyezelwa, uma kubhekwa unyaka ka-2014-2017, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion amandla asekhaya kwakungama-5.9GWh, 7.

I-0GWH, 30.5GWH kanye ne-39.2GWH, ngokulandelana, futhi eminyakeni emithathu ezayo, i-CAGR kusalindeleke ukuthi igcine u-30%.

Okungenhla kulindeleke ukuthi kusondele ku-40GWH ngo-2020, futhi ukululama kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion kuzosondela ku-70GWH ngo-2022. Ngokwenani lensimbi eliqukethwe, izinga le-70GWH lizokwenza ukuthi imakethe yokubuyisela ibhethri ye-lithium-ion yamandla iphule usayizi wamayuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-100. Lena ngokungangabazeki imakethe ekhangayo kakhulu, edinga ngokuphuthumayo ukunciphisa izindleko.

Lapho amasheya amakamela angenhla ememezela isaziso, inkampani ibambe iqhaza ngenkuthalo emkhakheni wokubuyiselwa kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion ngo-2017. Ukukhiqizwa Kabusha Kwebhethri I-Lithium Ion kuzokwakha ukugaywa kabusha "okukabili" kokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri yezimoto namandla amabhethri e-lithium-ion ngebhizinisi elikhona lenkampani. I-Closed-loop "chain chain, inkampani izozuza ukuthuthukiswa okuluhlaza nokuyisiyingi embonini entsha yamandla.

Eqinisweni, kuhambisana nemakethe yokutholwa kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion kulindeleke ukuthi yande. Ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule, izinkampani eziningi ezihamba phambili seziqalile ukwengeza ukwakheka kwekhodi. Ngo-Agasti 2017, isimemezelo sika-Guoxuan sobuchwepheshe obuphezulu sibonisa ukuthi i-Lanzhou Jinxuan, ese-Lanzhou, e-China, isungule ama-yuan ayizigidi ezingu-50 e-Anhui, e-Gansu, isungule izinkampani ezimbili zobuchwepheshe bokugaywa kabusha kwezinsiza zebhethri e-Jinshan, e-Gansu, esetshenziselwa ukusebenzela amandla.

Ukutholwa, ukudilizwa kanye nokucutshungulwa kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion, ukubambisana phakathi kwalokhu okubili kufinyelela uchungechunge lwezimboni oluhambisanayo, olubuye luvule ukuxhumana phakathi kwezinto ezingavuthiwe ze-lithium-circuit kanye nokululama kwebhethri. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengenani elincane lezinkampani ezifuywayo, inkampani iphinde yakhiqiza ibhethri ye-lithium-ion enamandla nemoto kagesi, i-BYD iphinde iqalise ukwakhiwa kwamaketanga okuvuselela kabusha ohlelweni lwangaphakathi: ngokusebenzisa i-Baolong Factory, ngokubambisana nabathengisi, ukuqedela ukukhishwa kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion, ukuhlolwa , Ukusebenzisa kabusha; nge-Huizhou Material Factory ukuqedela ukudilizwa kanye nokugaywa kabusha kwezinto zebhethri ezisetshenzisiwe. Muva nje, i-IPO iku-Ningde Times, isakhiwo esisenkambu yokugaywa kabusha ngaphambilini.

Ngo-2015, i-Ningde Times yaphasisa inkampani engaphansi i-Ningde kanye ne-Sheng Shares 69.02%, futhi ibhizinisi eliyinhloko lathathwa ekulawuleni i-Guangdong Bang Ping yebhethri ye-lithium-ion yemfucuza, futhi ihlanganisa nobubanzi bokuhlanganisa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iGreen Mei, i-Huayou Cobalt, i-China AV Lithium Electric kanye nokunye ukukhiqizwa kwebhethri nezinkampani ezihlobene nazo zihlela futhi izinkambu ezinamandla zokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion.

Kuyafaneleka ukubalula ukuthi inkampani enamandla yebhethri ye-lithium-ion incintisana endaweni yokugaywa kabusha, ingase ingagcini nje ngokuba nethemba mayelana namathemba emakethe yokugaywa kabusha, kodwa futhi ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwezindleko zempahla eluhlaza okuholela ekucindezelekeni kwenzuzo. Ku-Performance Express eyamenyezelwa ngoFebhuwari 28, iNyuvesi yaseChina yabonisa ukuthi ukwehla kokusebenza kwenkampani kwakungenxa yokuthi ngo-2017, intengo yamandla asekhaya amabhethri e-lithium-ion ngokuvamile ayehla, futhi intengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphuka phezulu yakhuphuka. I-Anxin Securities NgoMashi 13, imajini yenzuzo iyonke yebhizinisi lebhethri le-lithium-ion le-Guoxuan eliguqukayo lobuchwepheshe obuphezulu lalingama-37.

ama-91% engxenyeni yokuqala yowezi-2017, yehle ngamaphesenti ayi-10.8 uma kuqhathaniswa nama-48.71% ngowezi-2016; Inzuzo yonke yemaliji yesevisi yebhethri engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2017 yayingama-24.

76%, ukwehla ngamaphesenti angu-1.78 uma kuqhathaniswa nama-26.54% ngowezi-2016; i-gross profit margin yebhizinisi lebhethri le-lithium-ion lamandla e-Rilevo engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2017 yayingama-31.

91%, uma kuqhathaniswa no-2016 u-39.11% wehle ngamaphesenti angu-7.2.

Imakethe yokugaywa kabusha isendaweni yemakethe enamandla yokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion, kodwa uZhang Zhiyong utshele intatheli ye-Times Weekly ukuthi le makethe namanje ayikwazi ukuba yimakethe, lonke uhlelo lokugaywa kabusha alukenziwa, "ezinye izimoto zamandla amasha zizophinda zithenge Ukuzibophezela, kodwa manje sekukonke, isiqinisekiso senkampani entsha yamandla sisencane kakhulu, futhi kunenani elikhulu kakhulu. ". Kodwa-ke, uyaqaphela futhi ukuthi ukwakhiwa kwesistimu yokubuyisela ibhethri ye-lithium-ion eguquguqukayo akunakugwenywa kakhulu, ibhethri ye-lithium-ion yamandla inokungcola okunamandla, ukutakula okungalungile, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kusemphakathini noma imvelo iyingozi kakhulu.

Nakuba ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngesikhathi sokukhiqizwa kwebhethri, izinto zokusetshenziswa zingaphinda zisetshenziswe, futhi inkampani inezinzuzo zezomnotho. Ngokombono wenkampani, ukubuyiselwa kwebhethri akuyona imakethe efuna imakethe enenzuzo, kodwa isisekelo sokuvumela ukuphela kochungechunge lwezimboni. Okungashayi indiva ukuthi ukugaywa kabusha kwebhethri lamandla emoto yezwe lami kunezinkinga eziningi: imithetho nezimiso zokugaywa kabusha akuphelele, ngakolunye uhlangothi, uhulumeni akakawuqedi umthetho omusha wokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri lamandla emoto yamandla; ngakolunye uhlangothi, amandla Ibhethri alikaqapheli ukumiswa, ukwakheka kwebhethri, isisekelo sepali, i-casing material yangaphandle, njll.

Ubuchwepheshe obuhlosiwe bokwenza kabusha abukakenziwa. Ngokuvamile imboni ikholelwa ukuthi indlela yokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion eqhutshwa udoti, ukudilizwa kokuphepha, ukuvikelwa kwemvelo, isiqinisekiso sekhwalithi yomkhiqizo kanye nobuchwepheshe bokusetshenziswa kabusha kuseyinkinga evamile ebhekene nemboni, futhi asikho isidingo sokusungula ngokuhlanganyela uhlelo oluphelele lokugaywa kabusha, uhlelo olujwayelekile olujwayelekile kanye neSikhungo Sikazwelonke Sokucwaninga Sobunjiniyela Esinamandla ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthuthukiswa okunempilo kwemboni ye-lithium-ion yokubuyisela ibhethri. Eqinisweni, kusukela ngo-2012 State Council umemezele ukuthi "Energy Saving and New Energy Automotive Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)", iminyango ehlobene nohulumeni umemezele "Ihhovisi Jikelele loMkhandlu Wezwe mayelana nokusheshisa izimoto zamandla amasha", "izimoto zikagesi Inqubomgomo Yobuchwepheshe Yokuvuselela Ibhethri Dynamic (2015) ".

Ngomhla zingama-26 kuNhlolanja, uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi, uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi, njll. Ubani ongcolisa ohulumeni kusho ukuthi izinkampani ezikhiqiza amandla kanye nabenzi bezimoto banomthwalo wemfanelo onganqamuki enkingeni yokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion ashukumisayo. Mayelana nalokhu, u-Zhang Zhiyong uhlaziye ukuthi ekwakhiweni kwesiteshi sokugaywa kabusha kwebhethri lemfucuza, ukubamba iqhaza kwazo zonke izixhumanisi kuchungechunge lwezimboni akunangqondo.

Uhulumeni kufanele ubuswe inkampani yezimoto, "inkampani yezimoto ibhekene nabathengi, Kuyisixhumanisi esibalulekile sokuxhuma ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto zamandla amasha kanye nabathengi, okubuye kube yindlela ephumelela kakhulu yezinkampani zezimoto. Kodwa-ke, phakathi nezikhathi ezimbili, u-Chen Hong, ummeleli we-National People&39;s Congress kanye ne-Shanghai Automobile Group, uthe kulesi sigaba, uhlelo lwenqubomgomo ye-lithium-ion ye-lithium-ion ashukumisayo yokubuyisela ibhethri akuzwakali ngokwanele, futhi imboni yezimoto inzima ukwenza ibhethri ye-lithium-ion yamandla kuzo zonke izimoto ezithengiswayo. Imoto entsha ithengisa ukuphathwa komjikelezo wempilo ogcwele wokugaywa kabusha kokugcina.

"Kutuswa ukutadisha iziqu zokuthola kabusha izimoto zamandla amasha, ukuqedwa kancane kancane kobuchwepheshe emuva, izinkampani ezinobungani bemvelo". Mayelana nokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion ashukumisayo, okwamanje kunezici ezibalulekile zokuhlola imboni yasekhaya, okuhlanganisa ukusetshenziswa kwezinyathelo, ukusetshenziswa kokuvuselela, njll. Amabhethri kadoti adluliselwa ekuhlakazweni, kukhishwe izinto zokusetshenziswa, kumoshe ukwelashwa okungenangozi nezinye izixhumanisi ezivuselelekayo zokusebenzisa.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi nakuba imali eningi ingena endaweni yokugaywa kabusha, kusukela ekuthuthukisweni kwamanje kwemboni, kusenesikhathi esifushane. U-Zhang Zhiyong uthe ku-Times Weekly intatheli ukuthi "imakethe ingasungulwa ukuze ibone yonke imakethe yemoto entsha yamandla, uma ifinyelela izigidi zokukhiqiza nokuthengisa ngonyaka, ukuvuthwa kwemakethe yokuvuselela akuyona inkinga, kodwa eminyakeni emibili noma emithathu ezayo Hhayi ngalesi sikhathi ". .